megalops

Don, Heavy crude is what I have been referring to as SCO. It is more properly called dilbit, although it can occur naturally and be produced from conventional wells in zones that produce sour oil. In oilsands context, it is just bitumen diluted with either naptha or lighter crude (end up around 17 degrees API). It is basically the minimum feedstock quality to go directly to the more complex refineries. Crude oil is the reference price for most alberta conventional production. There are acutally several prices but this would be considered the overall benchmark. Crude bitumen is the raw oilsands production (8 to 12 degreees API). It is full of sulpher and flows about as well as warm peanut butter. The light SCO that Scotia referneces is bitumen after upgrading - the removal of all the sulphers and diluting to a grade typically better than WTI (36 degrees API).

Don, For pricing try: https://osi.alberta.ca/osi-content/Pages/Fa...umenPrices.aspx It is graph compiled based on the ERCB reference prices, which are available here: http://www.ercb.ca/docs/products/STs/st3/P...oil_current.pdf These prices are in m3, you'll have to convert to barrels by dividing by 6.28. These are month average prices delivered to Edmonton for light oil, and to hardisty for heavy oil. Edmonton light is essentially WTI less transport to Cushing OK. These are the equivalent pricing points in Alberta for light and heavy oil respectively. For daily prices, good luck. Those are only typically available to oil traders by subscription which cost a lot of money. The prices in the charts are what the companies typically get paid on (as a reference price) and what they pay royalties on. For clarity, SCO is typically a 30% discount and bitumen is a 40% discount (SCO is crude oil - heavy in the graph in the first link above). That varies from month to month based on take away capacity and demand for heavier stocks of oil. The breakeven price studies you see will typically include a notional return on capital in the price the author publishes. The return varies by author, but typically runs 9% to 15%, which is one reason you see such a disparity in break even prices. The typical number floating around now is in the $80 to $90 mark for new projects. Legacy projects were put in place on different economic assumptions. The ones done at a $50 breakeven price will be printing money at an oil price around $90. The mitigant to that is the ramp up in royalties that would occur once the project has paid out. Royalties will typically jump from 1% to 25% after payout.

In short, no. The CAPP revenue and expenditure tables are for 1) different time periods and 2) in different units. The revenue tables are in thousands and the expenditure tables are in millions. Converting to common time period (1947 - 2010) and common units (billions), revenues were $1,237 billion and expenditures were $702.9 billion. So, bluntly $522 billion in profit over a 63 year investment horizon. The vast majority of revenues were earned and expenditures made were over the past 25 years, so you could likely call the investment horizon 25 years. If you gave the industry credit for the fact that if they cut off drilling now and just produced the wells they drilled at no cost and doubled their revenues, it represents about a 10% per annum return on capital on a pre-tax basis. Not a great return for the risk associated with drilling and producing oil and gas. And, for Exxon earning $10 billion in profit...they earned that on $302 billion of capital employed, a 3.3% return on assets. Or the equivalent of earning $33 on a $1,000 bond for the year. Pretty shitty returns. Profit isn't an absolute number. You have to consider what they spent to earn it. For oil sand royalties - they are set low until the project has paid back the initial investment. Royalties will be disproportionate in the early years of projects.

Two additional things to keep in mind: 1) Bitumen and Sythentic Crude Oil (also known as heavy crude) do not sell at WTI prices. WTI is a reference price for light sweet oil, which oil sands production certainly is not. Bitumen typically sells at a 40% discount to WTI and SCO at around a 30% discount (the Alberta government posts reference pricing on their website); and 2) the costs in the study are 2004 costs and updated to 2006 (the amounts you posted were the 2004 figures). A lot has happened to costs since then, like a royalty change. CAPP provides more updated supply cost information on their website. A supply cost analysis generally shows the breakeven price needed to go ahead with oilsands projects. A $36 supply cost in 2006 for SCO implied a ~$50 constant WTI price for a project to be economic. The latest analysis I have heard implies a $90+ WTI price for projects to go ahead. A little different than a $72 profit that your post would suggest.

Some thoughts on your questions from someone that spends a few weeks a year being guided in the salt: 1) How good at casting should I be before I go. I think that I am okay on the bow, but being on the ocean with the wind and distances has me nervous now. For bonefish, you should be able to cast 40 to 50 feet into the wind and be able to hit a dinner plate fairly consistently. Pick a windy day here and practice casting into it. If you do not know how to double haul, learn. That is probably the one thing you need to know if you don't already. 2) I did not purchase flies or tippet because I thought that he will be the expert in this area so I would wait to see. Will they provide this or should I go to a shop early and pick up some stuff? Bring some. The guide will have some go to patterns if you don't have any. A standard bonefish leader (probably something in the 12 foot, 12 - 16 lb test will do). Bring a few leaders as from what I have heard from friends who have fished the area the bonefish flats are not traditional and there is a lot of coral that will ruin your leaders. Mike at Country Pleasures has fished the area and can probably point you in the right direction for basic stuff to take. Contact your guide and he will point you in the direction of a few basic patterns to bring. 3) Do you pay before or after the day? Do you tip? How much and why? Seems like $450 is a lot for a full day already but I don't want to be cheap. You pay at the end of the day. Tipping is customary, but up to you. I typically tip $100 - $150 per boat. Guides incur a lot of overhead and while the price may seem steep, they sure aren't getting rich from it. Another thing to ask before you go is whether the guide provides lunch. Some do, but it varies regionally. In Florida for instance, the guide does not provide lunch and you bring his lunch as well. 4) Should I only expect that we will target 1 type of fish (bones) or if bone fishing isn't so good is it fair to ask to target some other species. If the bonefish don't show up, your guide will have a back up plan. There is lots of stuff in the ocean that will eat flies. There are a lot of different trevally species around hawaii. 5) I realize that guiding is very different from teaching, but I imagine I am going to have a ton of questions since I have never done this before. Is it out of the question to expect that he be as good as a teacher as he is a guide? A good guide will be a better teacher than a guide. They generally prefer clients who ask questions and want to learn. Contrary to what was said before, there are bonefish in Oahu. The numbers aren't great, but they are big.

I have tried both in the 10 weights and have the TCR in a six weight for streamers and sink tips. When I was looking for a new ten weight I tried the TCX, Helios and the XI3. I ended up with the XI3 - it is a little more forgiving than the TCX and has the larger saltwater guides.

I have used the loop and the danielsson for saltwater fishing and they fall very short of the Charltons (I have only played with his previous reels before - haven't seen the Mako yet). Never been a fan of Nautilus. I have a couple of the Makos on order for tarpon fishing but was mainly wondering if anyone had tried the spey model as it apparently has lower top end drag relative to the non-spey versions.

Does anyone have any experience with the Mako spey reels from Charlton? I am considering one for a trip next fall and am wondering if anyone has any experience with them in the spey model. Thanks.

The homer rhodes was designed for use with shock tippets and really only works well in heavier mono (lightest I use it for is 60 lbs). It really doesn't work well with trout sized tippets, improved or not. And, who cares about have the knot to the fly as weak point for trout fishing? The tippet is going to be the weakest point in the system anyways if you are tying the rest of the knots properly.

[quote name='bcube' date='Oct 24 2008, 01:02 PM' post='64959' Personally, i do not believe there is a better reel readily available then the Van Staal C-Vex. Until you've picked one up, spun it, or fished with one you'll just be going off words.. I'll second Brent on this one - have in the past had three evotecs which have been replaced by Van Staals. The VS reels are awesome. I also like the new Sage 6000 series, they seem like they will be great.

I like the ex-offico contvertible pants - generally wear them as shorts in the morning or for wading and then as pants in the afternoon or in the boat. I like to have my very white legs covered in the afternoon sun. If you are going to be doing alot of wading the Patagonia Marle Walkers are great, and I think that Simms has a pair out this year that look pretty good. For light wading I wear the Orvis flats booties - they are slip on neoprene boots with a hard sole. I keep them in my boat bag and slip them on when needed as they tend to get really hot if you are going to wear them for an extended period out of the water. In the boat and for really quick wading trips I wear the Simms deck sandals, which are great. Whatever you use, wear a pair of socks underneath as they will help keep some of the sand from rubbing too much. Don't plan on keeping the socks after a week of wading. For hats, use something lightweight, not any of the heavier cotton baseball hats you might wear here. Bring an extra hat and keep it in your boat bag. I don't like the extra large brimmed hats or the hats with the neck covering. It is a lot harder to hear your guide with one of the hats with the neck/ear coverings. I don't bother with bandanas/buffs or sun-gloves but I am aware of people who swear by them.

I am very partial to Oban or Macallan - you can't go wrong with either of those. Like others above, I don't like the Glenfiddich. Generally, highlands are smoother and lowlands are peaty (which I think is more of a personal taste - personally I think they taste like feet).

As a former shop rat, Don hit the nail on the head with his comment. Orders are placed really early in the year (January and February) and by the time it gets to August, if you run out it is unlikely that the manufacturer will have any left either. Most manufacturers ship in batches so you don't get too overloaded with inventory in your first booking.

There was an old Gary Borger pattern kicking around a few years ago that he called a snail fly. Didn't look anything like a snail to me, but worked really well. It was basically a weighted renegade, but instead of brown and cream hackle you used brown and brown hackle and tied it weighted on a nymph hook (I liked the 2x long hooks). You can also use epoxy or something like it to coat the peacock herl on top and make the fly much more durable.

Toolman- I definately agree on that there is a cycle to hopper fishing. From what I hear (this has to do with having spent way too much time in the office for the past summer or three), this year is one of the worst in recent memory for hopper populations. I do think that there is a correlation between the amount of stoneflies early in the year and the readiness with which a fish will take a hopper later in the year. On another note, I do think that as long as they eat the bug, I don't care whether they ate it as a hopper or as a stonefly, and I can't believe that 'Skid Bitch' has actually become an accepted phrase to describe a female stonefly especially given the origins of the term...