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For the past 6 months I've been worried as hell about lossing my job, I work for Nova and haven't spent a red cent. However yesterday I started feeling rather optomistic and bought a second Islander reel I've been thinking about. If things continue to look good next spring I'm buying the drift boat (Hyde aluminuim) that I've been thinking about for a few years. My question is how does everyone else feel? Is is too ealry to come out of the shell yet?

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I have an avid interest in finance, economics, and the markets and follow a number of different analysts. I have no optimism about an economic recovery for several years. I think the best case scenario is a prolonged sideways trend from here. My worst case is real black. If you think boats are cheap now, wait a year or so.

 

I have my own little company and will have to consider firing myself in the next couple of months if my projections are correct. So far the market has collapsed ahead of the schedule I projected. Despite that, I am still optimistic about the future. We can individually decide how we react to this situation. I believe my skills are marketable and that I will find or create opportunities to apply them. I strongly feel my family will be OK.

 

That certainly doesn't mean I'm going to make large purchases. A cash cushion will be very important for next few years.

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I am on a Military Pension...so reckless spending is out for me at any time..

 

But careful spending and saving while still in the military helped us to be at a spot were we can get what we need..

 

Not necessarily what we want but we have the needs and that is good enough...

 

Never wanted to be a millionaire any way....

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You're bringing me down... Weedy where are you???

 

If that is me, don't let me bring you down...

 

I fish when ever I want... and that is lots...

 

No job don't have one and not looking for one at this time...

 

Just fly tie and fish ....

 

could not be better...

 

I don't owe anybody any thing... have two toyota's a matrix06 and a 04 highlander.. lots of fly fishing gear and fly tying gear ..

 

Don't have to worry about the recession..

 

Maybe that is what is bring you down ?

 

If so SORRY !!!!!!

 

Go fishing you will feel better... <--poke--<

 

 

Weedy, 420 help this guy...

 

 

 

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Guest girlsfishtoo
My question is how does everyone else feel? Is is too ealry to come out of the shell yet?

I sure hope :pray: we are headed back to a more secure future that we can come out of our shells. From what I hear from various opinions it could take a while (several years) to recoup *some* of the loses we have taken. But in the meantime, I have silenced my "buy it" voice with the "like it but don't really need it right now" voice. Playing it safer than I have been used to. The fear of the uncertain economy is something that we haven't had to deal with in such a profound way. It has affected everyone in one way or another, you worry about your kid loosing his job and will the stockmarkets ever recover from falling to sh#t!! :unsure:

 

Life is way to short!Spend it now before you get all old and crusty if you're lucky to go that far.

I agree "Life is way too short", more fishing :fishfish: and take every chance to enjoy life.

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My wife wants me to go look at a new truck in the morning. The problem with that is I just bought a brand new one in May of last year. The darn thing isn't even a year old.

 

Women. If it's not bright, shiny and new then it's old and needs to be replaced.

 

I say if they want to stimulate the economy just give all this stimulous money to the women of the world. They'll have it spent in a heartbeat and will stimulate the economy more than all the damn banks and car companies that can't get their **** together.

 

Rob

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My friend , Al, the campground host at Racehorse Creek Campground last year, said" You're gonna be dead a long time!" ,. "Nuff said!!!

 

Too right! Please ask you friend Al if i can start using that line.

 

As to the original question - I think it was a good one, because how people feel is a big part of what's going to happen in my opinion.

 

I too recently have been much more optomistic. For every so called expert that will tell you we are set for a recovery later this year, there is another that will say we are following the exact trends of the depression and we have a decade of woe ahead.

 

In November I started ignoring the opinion editorials and experts, because just about everything I read was trying to compare 2008 with some other economic period. The world in 2008 is absolutley nothing like it was in 1930, or even 1983. The biggest difference is that in 2009 there is no place to hide. Think of it like musical chairs. Lets say there were 8 contestants and 10 chairs, well everyone would just keep dancing because they weren't afraid of not getting a chair. If you had 10 people and only 7 chairs, fear would be higher and people would start playing defesnively (1980s), at 10 people and 4 chairs, their would be panic (1930's). But what if there were 10 people and no chairs - well, people would initially start to compare it to the 1930s, but then they realize they just have to keep dancing. The difference between now and every other economic recession/depression is that the world is truly globalized and there can only be winners if they all continue to win. This includes OPEC, China, Europe, North America, Japan, and every other economically significant entity in the world.

 

Long way to say - if everything thought like Al, we'd have no issues. Enjoy your reel. The recession will end, in my view, sooner than later, but it will end. once it does, our kids are going to experience the greatest period of econmic expansion that the world has ever seen for at least 10 years.

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Good question and great feedback! As I've maybe mentioned in a post before, I'm not a man of newspapers or listening to the media. That said, I'm not oblivious to our world situation either. Its hit my family for sure (I got laid off recently and my mom will be out of work in the summer). However, my wife and I are working on not letting the influence of "fear" or "lack" enter our lives, and are trusting that the universe will provide what we need when we need. We work hard, but have decided that we wan to be employed in a position that fills our life purpose. Our situation hasn't prevented us from responsibly spending money on a recent trip to AZ or sacrificing some foundational elements of our lifestyle (e.g. organic food). However, like Girlsfishtoo, we have been listening to our "inner voice" aka, intuition, etc. and have been finding that when listening to him/her, we are often steered in the right direction when it comes to buy or not to buy, to take a job or not, etc.

 

Gil, I'm sure if you listen to your inner voice, it will tell you what the right answer is. And from the sound of your post, it is saying boat, boat, boat! Good luck and I hope you have tightlines on your maiden voyage!

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I have continued to spend, more in the last year than ever. My wife and I have been thinking of starting a family in the next year or so, and I want to get all my goodies before we hit one income, understanding that available cash will be less available at that time. I have not changed my habits due to the recession or the hype the media places behind it. I pay myself first with RSP, as I always have, and do a sound budget plan monthly. No balance on the credit cards is the most important thing. As I think of having a family the level of concern does increase, with dependents and financial responsibility. However, I will not let fear impact the way I enjoy my life. I did not run out and buy propane and bottled water at the millennium either!

 

In short, if you think you could afford the boat, recession or not, go for it man! Who wants to be the richest dead guy around anyway!

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Since the economy tanked, Mike and I have lost 30% of our investment $$. Our financial advisor told us he expects that things will start on the upswing in early fall. I believe him - he's heavily leveraged and quite wealthy from all his years in the industry and practicing what he preaches. That being said though, we did go way more conservative and secure with our contribution this year until we see for sure what's going to happen. I think that's prudent - we've lost enough already and it's going to take better than 3 years to recoup those losses thereby setting our retirement back, potentially. Having said that, on the spending side, we have not been nearly so conservative. This year we travelled to Mexico, will be going to Vegas end of May, salmon fishing end of August, and probably Phoenix or the Dominican in November (hi honey.....we'll talk later LOL). We've spent some big $$ on travel this year did a couple of costly renos and will do some more costly stuff outside the house this spring, but our attitude right now is "f**k it....you can't take it with you and I'll be goddamned if I'm gonna leave it to kids who never worked for it". So....we've been responsible on the savings side so why not a teeny bit irresponsible on the spending side. Also....that being said, I have been laid off twice in the past 5 years. But my "laid off" meant some pretty lucrative packages and I wound up in jobs more financially rewarding that what I was out of. Do I believe that would happen to me now in this economy? Probably not. But I could be out of work for a year without worrying about anything either so I don't really take that into consideration. I guess what I'm getting at is this: if your formula for your financial life is such that you can justify financially and emotionally to buy what you feel you must have or want, then do it. If you have to go into debt to do it and are fine with that, then do it. You just have to be comfortable in your gut with your purchase otherwise buyer's remorse is going to find a way to track you down in that fancy new boat. There again, you could get hit by a bus tomorrow and never know the joy of fishing out of that bad boy. You see....in the end the "life is short" argument always wins!

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I mentioned some of this before on another thread about the boat thing but it has really hit home here as well. We have made decisions based on having the "toys" necessary to do the things we want with our kids while they are young. We do a lot of RVing as well as just travel in general. That will not change this year or any other year as we have based all of our regular spending capacity on worst case scenarios for my income. I am a sales guy for an equipment rental company which is very slow right now because of the lack of construction. This is something we just started a year or so ago and really found it paid off as any changes that have come along in my income will not impact us negatively. I"d like to see things busier, however at the same time with the current pace of work I will be able to take all of my holidays this year as well as the balance that I haven't taken through the last 2 years. That is something that never would have happened without this recession.

 

I hope that this time will help a lot of people refocus on the things that are of utmost importance in their life and make sure there is a plan in place for all possible outcomes. That way it will not be a major crisis if things go a little sideways. We are still in a position to spend and have continued to do so with the assumption that this will not get much worse through the next year before the up swing. That meant a new drift boat that hasn't even touched water yet......Come on spring.....lets go! If everyone was spending right now we would even be talking about it....damn media scaring the crap out of everyone!

 

Gil.....buy the boat! Prices are reasonable....I know Clackacraft has a yard full of them right now....there has to be 70 boats in the Idaho Falls yard alone. I'm thinking they'll be cutting some deals for the next while.

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Want to help the econmony spend it. That said, the "experts" disagree with cactus.

 

Nobody can spend their way to prosperity - especially with borrowed money.

 

Depends which expert...

 

By taking the advice of the experts I follow, we only lost ~17%. The loss was because I kept a portion invested in stuff that was being hyped by other "experts" and did not follow my intuition. I used to (successfully) target an investment return of at least 15%/year. Now I'm happy with 5%. Some simple math shows why. When asset prices are falling by 5-10% per year, my 5% positive return is equivalent to 15% growth in spending power. I believe prices will go sideways at best and likely continue to fall.

 

On that note, if you think boats are cheap now wait a year or so. What was the price of a boat in the 1980's?

 

There may be a short term market rally this year but don't hold your breath for a return to anywhere near the peak market valuations of everything for many years - until the world's balance sheets are restored to health. This will require companies and people to save.

 

If you're loosing sleep over whether to spend then don't. Nobody looses sleep over having money in the bank - at least in Canada.

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Well in case people are wondering, I bought a used Hyde Pro this afternoon. It's in great shape hardly ever been used. The guy had to sell it because of a medical issue. Pick it to tomorow. Let the good times roll!!!!

 

I'd love to take her for a spin, but I think I'll have to wait a couple of more weeks. Lousie isn't taking calls yet. Seems she is down South on vacation and has the spare key for my truck.

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