Castuserraticus

This sounds interesting and educational.

Spent an enjoyable afternoon at the show. Several interesting products out there. Saw a smooth spey/skagit casting demo.

From the article. "The U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSICD) agrees that the cold temperatures are unusual, and that the world's oceans may play a part in temperatures on land. " - You think? Afterall, the planet is over 70% covered by water and we know way less about ocean environments. "But the Center disagrees with Latif's conclusions, instead arguing that the cold snap is still another sign of global warming." - Classic - cold temperatures = global warming. They probably say this with all sincerity. ""We are indeed starting to see the effects of the rise in greenhouse gases," he said." - I thought we were already supposed to be in deep s%&t. ""This is just the roll of the dice, the natural variability inherent to the system," explained Serreze." If they can't predict seasonal temperatures, how can they predict long term variability?

I do not believe in "global" conspiracies. We all have biases. Most scientists on both sides of the debate generally believe they are dispassionately analyzing the data. Just like any other topic, some let passion blind their objectivity. I've worked with people who, despite drilling dryholes, would not back down on their theory. I am in the energy industry. My other passion is economics. In both these fields, significant dollars are invested based on theories that result from interpretation of relatively sparse data. If you are consistently wrong, it's not the data's fault, it's the interpreters fault. Being in the industry does bias my opinion somewhat. In the academic world, bias often comes from developing a pet theory. There can be huge $$ for a researcher who has a pet theory adopted by governments, industry, or other academics. Geology= earth science. It integrates physical processes like wind, wave, and current action on sediment transportation, with biology, chemistry, physics, engineering, and climatology to answer questions about the earth's past. One geologic "law" is the present is the key to the past. Modern observable processes leave indelible marks on the rocks. Using knowledge of these processes we can analyze the rock components and tell definitively that a set of rocks were initially deposited in a slow moving fresh water river within an environment that was arid and warm. We can tell that other rocks were deposited within a warm shallow tropical sea that was occasionally isolated from normal marine water so that evaporation concentrated the salts. Based on Eocene tree fossils, we know that parts of the Arctic islands were covered by a boreal forest 50MM years ago. During the Cretaceous Albian period there were volcanoes in NE Alberta and W Sask. Their "pipes" are host to diamond deposits now. These islands have not changed latitude. The Pleistocene glaciers scraped over 3000 ft. off parts of Alberta. Glaciology, geochemistry, paleontology, mineralogy, paloeclimatology, geomorphology, sedimentology, paleomagnetics, and many other specialized fields are parts of geology. The planet we think of as being static from our limited human perspective is very far from it.

I am a geologist used to working with data spanning millions of years. This is a primary reason I've been sceptical of the theory of anthropogenic driven climate change. The link below shows graphically and effectively the relavance of our human historical perspective. That is, we know squat about global climate variability because our time frame of observation is so insignificant. I collected tropical coral fossils on Ellesmere Island for a couple of summers. Also, the data has issues. The website also has links to the theory proponent websites. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/12/hist...ntext-of-scale/ And for a truly geologic scale: http://climateobserver.blogspot.com/2009/1...nd-climate.html There's a series of chart images or you can click on the youtube video to get slides with expanding time slices of temperature history from ice cores. Looking at the data trend for the last 3000-10000 years, it appears we are in a cooling trend. One interesting note from the data is that the 10000 year stable warm period we are in coincides with the development of agriculture and resulting blossoming of human technology and culture. Could stable agricultural societies have developed at any other time? Migration certainly would been much more limited. There are known issues with the ice core data. There is no ice less than 100 years old at the measured sites. It takes about 2500-6000 years for snow to turn into "sealed" ice under active accumulation and compaction. During this time, atmospheric gases are relatively free to move via diffusion. Until the ice becomes "sealed", the gases trapped within the ice are an average of the atmosphere over extended time periods. Because of this, short lived anomolous concentrations will very likely not be preserved or will be subdued. Natural sources of CO2 enrichment are volcanic eruptions. The average eruption spews 3 years worth of human emissions into the air within a few days to weeks. The temperature indicators in the ice are much more stable. Water molecules with different H and O isotopes behave slightly differently. Heavier water molecules are the first to condense and so are relatively enriched in the snow that falls at lower temperatures. The isotopic ratios of the water molecules provide accurate and durable temperature indicators. So, we know the temperature at a given depth in the ice pretty accurately and have an idea of the long term CO2 and other gas content of the atmosphere with much less precision. The historical temperature record goes back 420,000 years and shows the variations humans are presently concerned about are absolutely meaningless. The heavens still revolve around the earth to many people. The historical CO2 content of the atmosphere overall mimics the temperature data. The question then becomes what is the relationship? Recent work looking at past interglacial periods has tended to show that increases in CO2 lag increases in temperature by several hundred years. Some of this is attributed to release of trapped CO2 from melting permafrost. This is the reverse of what some would have us believe. True historical temperature and atmospheric gas data is extremely sparse. There are a few ice cores from Greenland and the antarctic. Making global predictions on such sparse data is analogous to an alien landing in Sweden and pronouncing all humans are tall blondes with poor taste in choosing husbands. Keep an open mind.

Our (ex) family doctor misdiagnosed my daughter's juvenile arthritis as a surgical problem. Fortunately another doc gave the proper one, we altered her diet and she had a "miraculous recovery". Our family accupuncturist (middle aged east Indian) improved my wife's acid reflux to where she no longer requires medication - contrary to our ex-family doctor's opinion - and helped provide relief to me and my daughter for different conditions. It sounds like your person was not properly trained or just was not competent. No profession has a lock on competency and not amount of training will overcome lack of ability. Was your palsy from Lyme?

In the "Grave of the Unknown Fisherman" John Gierach mentions accupuncture fixed his chronic fishing elbow. Seems like good advice since he makes his living fishing.

Quit trying to stop all the fun. A balanced view has no place in this thread. And now back to open-minded discussion....

Excellent Q&A on various aspects of H1N1, vaccines, adjuvants... http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/health...article1329448/ (copy and paste) As a scientist, I usually conduct my own research to determine the validity of news reports. It always disturbs me when only best case (political economic projections) or worst case (swine flu infection/death projections) are quoted by public officials. I accept there is always some error on forecasts but the politicization of some these issues is not acceptable. Usually the real data is available on the net so I can formulate my own opinions.

Google "Australia flu season" and review the real numbers from their government (Department of Health and Ageing) vs their predictions. Have a look at the CBS documentary on statistical reporting in the US at mercola.com. Apply the same ratios to Canada and sleep well whether you got the shot or not.

I've read a couple of studies about the last swine flu vaccination program (1970's I think) where more people died due to side affects from the vaccine than from the actual disease. Some authors attrubute this to the adjuvants (preservatives and other substances) added to the vaccine to magnify the reaction of the immune system. I readily admit I have developed some cynicism towards the modern "take a pill" medical system. I've seen remarkable results with more holistic nutritional/life style approaches with no side effects. The human body is designed to heal. Good nutrition, excercise, rest, and stress reduction are key to optimal health.

See mercola.com for lots of info and stats on the flu adn vaccines. He's a bit sensational but does publicize a lot of studies.

Saw the same(?) girl in the same place in early August.

Call Keith at K&J autobody. He's done 2 jobs for me where people have damaged my vehicle less than $1000 and wanted to bypass insurance. The shop is in Greenview Industrial. For truly outstanding fiberglass repairs call Dieter at The Marine Clinic.

My wife and I went to the LPGA today and saw a Korean girl who's less than half your size hit about 320 yards without a tail wind. Did you give her lessons?

On a float last week I saw something that amazed me. Most people have likely seen crows, hawks, and eagles harassed by small birds but I saw something real different on a float last week. An osprey came gliding over the river and it looked like it had two heads. A small bird was riding it's back. The bird took off, flew around harassing the osprey, and then appeared to land on the osprey again. I'm uncertain what the smaller bird was. It was about the size of a nuthatch or flycatcher. The osprey did not alter it's flight path. I've seen other large birds attempt evasive manuevers when harassed by smaller birds but the osprey seemed unfazed. The small bird dipped at the osprey a couple of times and then glided down onto its back. It was odd looking behaviour. My friends said they'd seen this before.

Two articles with different perspectives: "Using the Economists World in Figures I think there is a very interesting and maybe appalling story to tell. In its simplest terms a healthcare system is there to extend the longevity of live of the population. It is the single best and simplest way to judge it because we can all find examples of where one country is better than another but the longevity stats don't lie. When we use that framework the picture is incredibly different. The US has many of the best doctors and medical care in the world but it doesn't work for the population as a whole and therein lies the problem. "According to the Economist the total US spend on healthcare is 15.4% of GDP including both state and private . With that it gets 2.6 doctors per 1,000 people, 3.3 hospital beds and its people live to an average age of 78.2 "UK - spends 8.1% of GDP, gets 2.3 doctors, 4.2 hospital beds and live to an average age of 79.4. So for roughly half the cost their citizens overall get about the same benefit in terms of longevity of life. "Canada - spends 9.8% of GDP on healthcare, gets 2.1 doctors, 3.6 hospital beds and live until they are 80.6 yrs "Now if we look at the more social model in Europe the results become even more surprising: "France - spends 10.5%, 3.4 docs, 7.5 beds and live until they are 80.6 "Spain - spends 8.1% , 3.3 docs , 3.8 beds and live until they are 81 "As a whole Europe spends 9.6% of GDP on healthcare, has 3.9 doctors per 1,000 people, 6.6 hospital beds and live until they are 81.15 years old. "The list goes on. The truth is that in many cases as is pointed out the healthcare system is better in the US than in some other countries BUT US citizens must therefore get ill more often than any other country in the West in order to achieve the truly appalling statistic that they are the 41 longest living nation on earth with France, Spain, Norway, Switzerland, Italy, Austria, Andorra, Holland, Greece and Sweden all featuring in the top 20 longest living nations and the UK and Germany at 22. And from another commentator: "Canada is a wonderful place to have a nasty gash on one's forehead stitched, or to break one's nose in a game of pick-up baseball; but have cancer, or need eye surgery, or want an MRI, and the business of medicine in Canada and/or the UK breaks down badly in favour of medical care here in the US. For example... and we wish to thank The Investor's Business Daily for the data noted here this morning... "... here in the US men and women survived cancer at an average of just a bit better than 65%. In England only 46% survive. In the US, 93% of those diagnosed with diabetes receive treatment within six months; in Canada only 43% do, and in the UK only 15% do! For those seniors needing a hip replacement and getting one within six months, 15% get it done in the UK; 43% get it done in Canada ... and in the US 90% do! For those waiting to see a medical specialist, 23% of those in the US get in within four weeks, while 57% in Canada have not yet done so, and in the UK 60% are still waiting after four weeks. "When it comes to proper medical equipment, in the US there are 71 MRI or CT scanners available per million people. In Canada there are but 18, and in the UK there are only 14! Ah, but the best figure of all is this: 11.7% of those 'seniors' in the US with 'low incomes' say they are in excellent health, which in and of itself sounds rather low ... rather disconcerting ... and an indictment of the system itself, doesn't it? But in Canada only 5.8% do! "Yessiree bob, ya' jus' gotta' luv that collectivized, socialized medical care! Let's all go break a collective arm and enjoy the benefits of socialized medicine in the Commonwealth! (Canada) ... but heaven help you if you've got something really, really wrong. If that's the case, you'll be running south to the border faster than you can reach a specialist anywhere in Canada; of that we are certain." The higher obesity rate and poor diet of the US compared to the food culture of Europe is a likely cause of the differences in life expectancy. Europeans also walk more because fewer own cars. Who's going to pay to lobby for laws mandating less junk food and decreasing the number of cars (higher taxes) in the US? Obama's policies do seem to target making driving more expensive.

Toshiba laptop computer

I had occasional back pain until a few years ago. I signed up for a yoga class at the U of C to increase my flexibility. The instructor was a back specialist it turned out and she put the class through some regular stretches. Even thought I don't do the exercises regularly I have not had pain since. I think it helped that I was the only guy in a class of lovely young women. All that head turning I guess.

The internet is a pretty faceless place. In this forum we read each other's posts and, until we actually meet, formulate opinions about the character of the writers. What does your handle say about you? When I started fly fishing again, I caught a lot of different things including myself, before I started catching fish - hence the name.

A large problem with smart people is that they're used to being right. There are many smart people on this board who think they are right. When my son transferred to a gifted school for junior high, he was astounded at the intensity of discussions and arguments between the other students on just about every subject. These kids were used to being right. I worked with a guy for a couple of years who told me several times he was one of the smartest guys around. I thought of him immediately when I saw some of Supremeleader's posts. This guy would have loved that handle and would have had no problem adopting it. In the energy industry we have a rotary bullshit detector for geoscientists called a drill bit. Some of us learn from it and some don't. There's a powerful human behaviour called confirmational bias. We all tend to view people who espouse opinions similar to our own as being smarter. We look through the keyhole of life with both eyes because of this (narrow minded). It takes tremendous effort to listen to and hear opposing opinions. I generally lurk in these discussions because I don't see them going anywhere. "If you torture the data long enough it will confess anything" is one of the most important quotes for a scientist to remember. The general public is generally ignorant that all scientific data is subject to interpretation and manipulation. EVERYONE HAS BIAS. Even dummies think they're smart.

Boo Hiss Obviously an altered engineer joke.

As a geologist who works for a private company - ???????????

That was one heck of a week!!

The big spring floods are invariably related to early June rains that coincide with snow melt. Just because we didn't get the June monsoons and chocolate milk flows doesn't mean we're in for unusually low water. Much of the summer flow for most streams is due to influx of springs. As long as there is a reasonable amount of summer rainfall to soak into the ground and keep the springs flowing the rivers will be fine. People tend to focus on the visible portions of the hydrological cycle (surface water flow) because the massive amount of groundwater flow is not visible.