reevesr1

Wonderful. Where were you last year??

They are not required to do so, but I don't think that any state has ever gone against the popular vote for electoral college votes. You seem a bit cynical there Gary.

So here is the process: Each party has several candidates who compete in a swimsuit contest.. Ok, so they compete in a series of "primaries" or "caucuses" in several states to determine how these states will vote in each parties "Convention". Kinda like a series of popularity contests. However, once the first vote of the convention goes down, each state can change their vote to whatever candidate they wish. (Big states have lots of delegates, small states not so many). So each party ends up with one candidate who then face each other (and possibly a meaningless 3rd party candidate) in a general election. Most votes wins right? Well, not really. The election is really 50 separate elections in each state. Each state has a number of "Electoral College" votes. These votes determine the next president. So it is possible to loose the popular vote and still be president. It happened to Bush (and some would say it's happened twice to Bush), but that is a whole other topic. So there is election civics in a nutshell. If I explain more, it just gets more confusing. Colbert is running a joke candidacy. He is actually trying to register as a candidate in both parties for the North Carolina primary I think. Very funny stuff.

Hey, I think I have the other half of that one! (before anyone starts, it is not Ladystrange's. At least, I don't think so!)

Weedy my man, its not too often one gets to laugh hysterically on a Sunday morning. I think I scared my kids. By the way, they were CANADIAN women, and as such, superior to any American male in hockey skills and sense. And I was inebriated as well, so that one is a draw. I guess I'm just fortunate no one from Edmonton was there. I'm sure a resident of the "City of Champions" would have taken me down. I don't really love myself, though I do like myself quite a bit

Sorry to break in here, but this post is about me playing hockey, and any other direction I choose to take it in. Since I started the post, only I am allowed to hijack it. (this rule only applies to posts I start. However, I give myself permission to hijack any post I like). Glen, Do you think that white puffy stuff would work as an inner-lining in your ice fishing chilli glove thingys?

Ladystrange, Don't know how to break this to you, but most of the hockey players in Dallas are from Canada. Some are from Europe. Modano is the token American (sorry if I spelled his name wrong). If I was sarcastic, I would ask why they have football in Canada. A few make work projects for Canadian offensive linemen?

Gee, sounds great and all, but I have already done the big Egyptian guy thing. Fell last year trying to spray ice on my son while exclaiming "look, I can do a hockey stop". Feet flew out from underneath me, and I hit the ice basically horizontally. It took my breath away and scared the kids (are you hurt daddy? Why can't you talk?). Once I could breath again, I assured the kids I was OK and tried to get up. This is when I realized my ribs were either cracked or broken. Turned out just really badly bruised. Two or three weeks later, I was fine. And that, ladies and gentlemen, ended my skating, and hence my hockey career.

Here is my predictable response, which serves my best interest 1. Predictable response, serves their best interest 2. Predictable response, serves their best interest 3. Predictable response, serves their best interest 4. Predictable response, serves their best interest I could add Politically motivated in 1, 2, 3 and profit motivated in 4. I don't necessarily believe any of them.

Nice tie in to previous posts. Well played, you have my respect (as if that's worth anything!) Just so we are clear, I'm more cut than the guy on the left.

Where did the 3 yr number come from? Not doubting, just curious. I agree that would seem pretty quick for billion dollar projects. I totally agree that Oil Sands will be it for the future, and it will be produced. But today is Natural Gas. And I do have another question: I always hear people say that you need to protect the resource for the future. What makes people think that is not happening now? Oil and gas have been produced from Alberta since the early 1910s. Population in 1910 370,00 plus or minus. Today, the population is 3 million, plus or minus. Seems like the industry has been protected pretty good so far, or is there an industry I am missing here? Edit-and I couldn't agree more on the upgraders.

I know very little about Oilsands as well. But a report from Jan 2004 means 2003 (or maybe 2002) numbers for costs. Multiply by 1.5 to 2 for today's cost would be my bet. Others can probably firm that number up. Also, what they don't tell you is that bitumen does not sell for the same as WTI or Brent, it sells for significantly less.

Interesting. My bet is all the left wing nuts are on the side of increasing the royalty, more than the committee for that matter. It's never very difficult to determine which side of any issue the nuts will fall on (hey, I just made a pun). I can also safely assume I know which side of the fence the reporter of that article falls on. Edit: I just looked at the title to the article. "Oilpatch showing paranoia and fear" He got the fear part right! But.... According to Wikipedia, "Paranoia is a disturbed thought process characterized by excessive cognitive modules anxiety or fear, often to the point of irrationality and delusion. Paranoid thinking typically includes persecutory beliefs concerning a perceived threat" A couple of points: 1. The threat is real, not just perceived and 2. To paraphrase Mel Gibson in some movie with Julia Roberts-"just because I'm paranoid, it doesn't mean I'm wrong" or something like that.

Rich, If the above is true, then why were some of the majors already pulling back a bit, and in some cases a lot? The perception that Alberta is a land of huge profits is just wrong. While the last couple of years have been fantastic exceptions, it is not the rule. We are coming back to the norm, and activity is dropping. This is before any change in royalties. Also, do not forget about the dollar change lately. That has negatively impacted the industry as well as they get less Cdn Dollars for their product. Also, except for heavy oil (which is admittedly a notable exception) the price of oil, in Alberta, is an irrelevant number. Look at gas, nothing else. There is no appreciable conventional oil left in Alberta. (And the only lifting cost that matters today is heavy oil. I don't know what the number is, but it is way north of $30. I know I am not going to convince anyone of this who doesn't already believe it, but I can't stress enough how this perception of mega-profits is just not true. The cost of operating in Canada is huge (with political stability comes a highly trained work force which also means highly compensated). The profits are small, compared to other hydrocarbon producing countries. You can think of Canada (and the rest of North America for that matter) as a bond fund. The developing world is the stock market. When things are good, money goes into the stock market and leaves the bond fund. Things are good now in the rest of the world and the money is leaving. Don't believe it, look at rig count. Way down this year. Again, before the review. As I said, I don't claim to be able to predict what will happen post review. I just want everyone to know what they are playing around with. In many cases history is a fantastic predictor of the future. Using my best Forest Gump impersonation "I may not be a smart man, but I know what a bust is." It's happened too many times in the past, and do not kid yourself that it cannot happen again.

I got that one today as well, but it was ice fishing with this picture...

Always kinda funny how these things take off. My biggest hit was when I congratulated myself for being a daily post whore winner. Went on for days, in lots of directions and was very funny.

But one of the reasons it is spectacular IS the city. Another balancing act.

Not going to disagree with you Taco (ok, maybe a little). I will say that for the many of the companies in Canada the profit margin ain't all that great to begin with, and is much higher in many parts of the world. Raise royalties, and the landscape will change. The question is into what. And you just hit, in a nutshell, what is wrong with political parties in general (and those of us who elect them). The decision will be political, not based on business, need, analysis, whatever. Just self preservation. Ain't politics grand. Finally, how many busts since the Lougheed years? Just because the industry came out the other side doesn't mean it was the correct way to get here.

Glen, I thought MTB completed me! Just curious, ever thought your post on pulling up a rock would make 3 pages? Man, are we sad or what?

Just so we are clear on who is at risk here, it isn't the oil executives with their hummers. They, for the most part are set for life. It's the rank and file who will suffer, and the stark reality is the further you are down the scale, the more the suffering will be. Those of us who have come from other places can always go back, though in my case I sincerely hope that doesn't happen. But I have lots of friends who are born and raised here who are scared. Answer me this: If Joe who is a high school educated roughneck, with a couple of kids looses his job because the oil industry "slows down" who is going to hire him and the 10's of thousands of others like him? The good news is McDonalds and Wendys can go back to paying minimum wage because they will have lots of applicants. Joe gets to try to sell his truck (with no one to buy it) his house (same problem), and will go bankrupt. Thats what will happen if the "slow down" becomes an "all stop." The thought that Canadians will now step in and pick up the slack is a bit far fetched as well. There are many reasons, but I'll only go in to the biggest one: To drill and produce a well takes lots of capital investment. If you are a Major oil company, that capital comes from within. If you are a Canadian startup, you gotta raise the money. Trust me when I say that if the royalty increase does cause the majors and big Canadian companies to stop drilling, there will be almost no money available anywhere for anyone to drill anywhere else. (edit: I mean in Alberta. Not Sask or BC) There is a bit of a recoil for many in the province because of the big profits of oil and gas companies in the last several years, mostly caused by a rapid increase in the price of the resource. However, if memory serves, there is a mechanism already in place to ensure the province and federal government get their fair share of these profits. It has a name which is evading me, wait I know. Its called Taxes. It's like royalties, but on the back end. Another word of caution here, taxes and royalties already do fund hospitals, schools, roads, etc. Raise royalties to a level that makes it too painful for companies to stay, and can someone tell me where the money is going to come from for infrastructure? The good news is you won't need as much because there will be less people. And those cookie cutter houses will all have for sale signs on them. Look, I have no idea what the final outcome of this will be. I do however know what a bust is like, and make no mistake, that is what the province is playing with right now. This province has lots of resources, and they will be consumed eventually. The high operating cost that already exists in Canada ensures that they will be consumed slowly, which is good. Change the business environment and you run the risk of maintaining the same old boom bust cycle. Be careful what you wish for.

Pipes, This is a fly fishing site. We don't take well to pictures showing snapping freshwater clams being butchered by what looks like a BARBED treble hook. He probably killed and ate the clam. I hope he chokes on that hotdog! All that said, anyone know where I can get a shirt like that?

I went snipe hunting once in Texas. Stood around for hours with my paper sack, but none of those suckers showed up. I thought I heard some, but didn't catch any. Couldn't find my friends afterwards either. Don't know what happened to them.

Don't know about here in Canada, but in the US, when I shipped on eBay I never ever used UPS. Hated 'em. The USPS was better and cheaper. Shipping to Canada via Fedex Ground wasn't bad either.

Safeway has 'em, or at least I think they do. My wife handles that stuff. I just do the quilts.

Brent, I do believe that was the Puffy shirt, not Poofy shirt. One is for Pirates, one if for Chromie material. I'm sure Glen can fill us in on any other differences.