reevesr1

I know very little about Oilsands as well. But a report from Jan 2004 means 2003 (or maybe 2002) numbers for costs. Multiply by 1.5 to 2 for today's cost would be my bet. Others can probably firm that number up. Also, what they don't tell you is that bitumen does not sell for the same as WTI or Brent, it sells for significantly less.

Interesting. My bet is all the left wing nuts are on the side of increasing the royalty, more than the committee for that matter. It's never very difficult to determine which side of any issue the nuts will fall on (hey, I just made a pun). I can also safely assume I know which side of the fence the reporter of that article falls on. Edit: I just looked at the title to the article. "Oilpatch showing paranoia and fear" He got the fear part right! But.... According to Wikipedia, "Paranoia is a disturbed thought process characterized by excessive cognitive modules anxiety or fear, often to the point of irrationality and delusion. Paranoid thinking typically includes persecutory beliefs concerning a perceived threat" A couple of points: 1. The threat is real, not just perceived and 2. To paraphrase Mel Gibson in some movie with Julia Roberts-"just because I'm paranoid, it doesn't mean I'm wrong" or something like that.

Rich, If the above is true, then why were some of the majors already pulling back a bit, and in some cases a lot? The perception that Alberta is a land of huge profits is just wrong. While the last couple of years have been fantastic exceptions, it is not the rule. We are coming back to the norm, and activity is dropping. This is before any change in royalties. Also, do not forget about the dollar change lately. That has negatively impacted the industry as well as they get less Cdn Dollars for their product. Also, except for heavy oil (which is admittedly a notable exception) the price of oil, in Alberta, is an irrelevant number. Look at gas, nothing else. There is no appreciable conventional oil left in Alberta. (And the only lifting cost that matters today is heavy oil. I don't know what the number is, but it is way north of $30. I know I am not going to convince anyone of this who doesn't already believe it, but I can't stress enough how this perception of mega-profits is just not true. The cost of operating in Canada is huge (with political stability comes a highly trained work force which also means highly compensated). The profits are small, compared to other hydrocarbon producing countries. You can think of Canada (and the rest of North America for that matter) as a bond fund. The developing world is the stock market. When things are good, money goes into the stock market and leaves the bond fund. Things are good now in the rest of the world and the money is leaving. Don't believe it, look at rig count. Way down this year. Again, before the review. As I said, I don't claim to be able to predict what will happen post review. I just want everyone to know what they are playing around with. In many cases history is a fantastic predictor of the future. Using my best Forest Gump impersonation "I may not be a smart man, but I know what a bust is." It's happened too many times in the past, and do not kid yourself that it cannot happen again.

I got that one today as well, but it was ice fishing with this picture...

Always kinda funny how these things take off. My biggest hit was when I congratulated myself for being a daily post whore winner. Went on for days, in lots of directions and was very funny.

But one of the reasons it is spectacular IS the city. Another balancing act.

Not going to disagree with you Taco (ok, maybe a little). I will say that for the many of the companies in Canada the profit margin ain't all that great to begin with, and is much higher in many parts of the world. Raise royalties, and the landscape will change. The question is into what. And you just hit, in a nutshell, what is wrong with political parties in general (and those of us who elect them). The decision will be political, not based on business, need, analysis, whatever. Just self preservation. Ain't politics grand. Finally, how many busts since the Lougheed years? Just because the industry came out the other side doesn't mean it was the correct way to get here.

Glen, I thought MTB completed me! Just curious, ever thought your post on pulling up a rock would make 3 pages? Man, are we sad or what?

Just so we are clear on who is at risk here, it isn't the oil executives with their hummers. They, for the most part are set for life. It's the rank and file who will suffer, and the stark reality is the further you are down the scale, the more the suffering will be. Those of us who have come from other places can always go back, though in my case I sincerely hope that doesn't happen. But I have lots of friends who are born and raised here who are scared. Answer me this: If Joe who is a high school educated roughneck, with a couple of kids looses his job because the oil industry "slows down" who is going to hire him and the 10's of thousands of others like him? The good news is McDonalds and Wendys can go back to paying minimum wage because they will have lots of applicants. Joe gets to try to sell his truck (with no one to buy it) his house (same problem), and will go bankrupt. Thats what will happen if the "slow down" becomes an "all stop." The thought that Canadians will now step in and pick up the slack is a bit far fetched as well. There are many reasons, but I'll only go in to the biggest one: To drill and produce a well takes lots of capital investment. If you are a Major oil company, that capital comes from within. If you are a Canadian startup, you gotta raise the money. Trust me when I say that if the royalty increase does cause the majors and big Canadian companies to stop drilling, there will be almost no money available anywhere for anyone to drill anywhere else. (edit: I mean in Alberta. Not Sask or BC) There is a bit of a recoil for many in the province because of the big profits of oil and gas companies in the last several years, mostly caused by a rapid increase in the price of the resource. However, if memory serves, there is a mechanism already in place to ensure the province and federal government get their fair share of these profits. It has a name which is evading me, wait I know. Its called Taxes. It's like royalties, but on the back end. Another word of caution here, taxes and royalties already do fund hospitals, schools, roads, etc. Raise royalties to a level that makes it too painful for companies to stay, and can someone tell me where the money is going to come from for infrastructure? The good news is you won't need as much because there will be less people. And those cookie cutter houses will all have for sale signs on them. Look, I have no idea what the final outcome of this will be. I do however know what a bust is like, and make no mistake, that is what the province is playing with right now. This province has lots of resources, and they will be consumed eventually. The high operating cost that already exists in Canada ensures that they will be consumed slowly, which is good. Change the business environment and you run the risk of maintaining the same old boom bust cycle. Be careful what you wish for.

Pipes, This is a fly fishing site. We don't take well to pictures showing snapping freshwater clams being butchered by what looks like a BARBED treble hook. He probably killed and ate the clam. I hope he chokes on that hotdog! All that said, anyone know where I can get a shirt like that?

I went snipe hunting once in Texas. Stood around for hours with my paper sack, but none of those suckers showed up. I thought I heard some, but didn't catch any. Couldn't find my friends afterwards either. Don't know what happened to them.

Don't know about here in Canada, but in the US, when I shipped on eBay I never ever used UPS. Hated 'em. The USPS was better and cheaper. Shipping to Canada via Fedex Ground wasn't bad either.

Safeway has 'em, or at least I think they do. My wife handles that stuff. I just do the quilts.

Brent, I do believe that was the Puffy shirt, not Poofy shirt. One is for Pirates, one if for Chromie material. I'm sure Glen can fill us in on any other differences.

Glen, You being a top notch fly distributor and all, is "white poofy stuff" a technical term? I did a google search on "white poofy stuff" and got a lot of hits about hair, clothes, other such stuff. Nothing about fly tying. Am I missing something? Is it a trade secret?

Thanks to Dave and all the moderators. I have no way of calculating how much this site has helped me learn this exhilarating/frustrating sport. What's even better is the people I've met because of this site. Thanks to all. Hey LK, shoot me a PM and we'll knit a quilt. Now THATs touchy feely!

Replies-- In my defence, I was actually shooting pretty hard, I do have a bit of pride. But a goalie would have been a problem! I shoot pucks better than I fish it appears. The birthday boy had a signed Lanny jersey. I wish I had known and I would have gotten a big ugly mustache from a costume shop for him. And I mean big and ugly.

Hey Weedy, Next time my wife makes me go up there to visit her family, expect a PM. I'll see if I can assist in landing 4 lb trout. I even have an ugly yellow TFO 5 wt we can experiment with.

OK, I'll concede the hand warmer idea. You have to be absolutely freakin' nuts to ice fish anyway. So I'm sure they'll pay pretty much anything if they could stay warm while doing it, all 30 of them. And it's actually called Chili, but Chilli works well for your idea. Pun intended I'm sure. As to the Ham Hocks and Black-eyed peas: I took on about 10 Canadians. All pretty old cuz they were at a 40 yr old birthday party. Not exactly a hot bed of athletic skill. You would be taking on MILLIONS of highly skilled ham hock and black-eyed pea eaters at the height of their ability. They would eat you up. Again, pun intended.

Now that's what I'm talking about! Bring on the trash talk boys and girls!! Edit: Oh and Chris, I've already broken one of your rods. Wouldn't bother me a drop to break another.

Weedy, I'm sure you are a bit taller than this kid, but you get the point. You only need to watch the first 15 seconds or so....

I know who Tiger Williams is. I've met Dave Semenko and Dave Lumley. Seems I have a thing for enforcers. I once had a 15 minute conversation with Gordy Howe. We talked about golf and fishing in SE Texas from his playing days in Houston before he started telling everyone old hockey stories. One of the coolest things ever. The point of the post was highlight how an American, with no hockey experience, whupped a bunch of Canadian men in a hockey skill game. You know, rub your faces in it a bit. Get it?

Hey, great idea. If anyone is looking for a 47 year old who can't really skate forwards, can't skate backwards at all, but is deadly accurate standing still 25 feet from the net, with no goalie, I'm your man!

Since most of my stories involve some sort of pain or embarrassment to yours truly, thought I would share one with a bit of a different ending. I went to a buddy's 40th birthday party last night. The party had a hockey theme, complete with a visit by a fake Don Cherry (which was hysterical) a hockey cake, hockey on the big screens, and a hockey shootout game that his wife rented. It was a square target with 9 lighted panel s whose lights went out when you hit one with the puck. The game was to get all 9 panels out in 15 shots, bet time wins a valuable prize. After a few of the women tried, I gave it a shot. I had to ask "how do you lift the puck?" Anyway, I get 6 or so, think "not bad" and continue drinking. Much later I come downstairs again and since no one is shooting, try again. First shot, dead center. Next three shots connect and people start paying attention, the top row is gone, and I'm actually hitting what I'm aiming at. Next few shots and I'm down to one square and 5 pucks left. I'm kinda laughing to myself over the absurdity of it all, and that I sure hope I can hit the last one. I hit it on the first shot. The crowd goes nuts. So 11 shots, 9 squares in 20.75 seconds. The best time by 6 seconds. And a bunch of humiliated Canadian hockey players. For the next hour and a half, every Canadian male tries several times, and fails to get anywhere close to my record. The night ends with me being presented with a little trophy with a puck signed by Lanny MacDonald, Darryl Sittler, and Tiger Williams. Sorry if I got the names wrong, just some guys from Toronto aren't they? Anyway, the moral of the story is that if you don't have any expectations, sometimes good things happen. Just think, if that is the case, maybe some day a team from Canada will win the Stanley Cup.