reevesr1

Don't hold your breath

Conventional oil and gas has been about dead in Texas for essentially my whole life. But if you drive around now there are more rigs than I have ever seen due to shale gas, bypassed (small) pay, brownfields, etc., etc. The industry may be on its last legs, but my bet is those legs are going to last for the foreseeable future. And I don't think many (myself included) truly understand the scope of the oilsands. I know there are oil majors that expect the Ft. Mac oilsands to be their biggest oil producing field in the word in 15-20 yrs. That is a big ass economic engine you are talking about. With that happening, and all the talent (and that's what I find Alberta best at supplying) around, conventional oil and gas (and CBM, and Shale gas) will keep kicking along. Anyway, the horse may be beat up, but it ain't dead yet. I hope. All that said, keep putting your money in the bank while you can..... Edit: and to keep on topic. I would disagree a bit with Brownstone, you can't trace every cent back to O&G. Agriculture and tourism are players as well. So only say 90% or so back to oil and gas. If it did go away, this province would be unrecognizable. A few might like the change. The VAST majority would not. At least the fishing would be better.

Sigh. Did anyone read Weedy's post? 3rd form of power (primary, backup, emergency backup) not installed on 2 of 8 pumps, required as an earthquake precaution, in the Ottawa Valley. On a reactor that has been operating for what, 50 yrs? How many earthquakes in that 50 yrs? Balance that against needed medical isotopes. Doesn't really seem like all that hard of a decision. But it's nuclear. Oh my god, the horror. Sigh. Hey Don and Clive, Got room under that rock. This is boring now.

I feel like I'm back in Aberdeen. I need a beer, quick. Helps me to understand, M8.

Paul, The fact that the staff did work tells you lots about the safety of the plant. Unless things are different in Canada, which I am sure they are not, that will be a very highly trained group of people who will have a very deep knowledge about how all systems interact. If they didn't think it was safe, my bet is they would have refused to run it.

I like it, particularly since it flies in the face of tradition a bit. Max, wanna tie me a couple of these? http://www.fishusa.com/Yo-Zuri-3D-Fingerli...A43DCC93EF16A71 Sorry, couldn't resist. The sequin sorta serves the same purpose and the lip.....

No, I completely glow in the dark. Amazing that I had all my kids after the Navy. Some other long lasting symptoms are a unquenchable desire for donuts (MMMMMMMMM Donuts.....), an attraction to women with blue hair, and a strange desire to move to Springfield. By the way, you changing your avatars daily now?

I'd love to attend, and work will be very quiet in April. Looking forward to it, and let me know if I can do anything....as long as it doesn't include breakfast.....

LK2, Indian River is world famous for BIG schools of BIG redfish. You tie into one of those 30+" bad boys on a fly rod, be prepared! It will be a total hoot. Don't bypass the seatrout (or Specks) either. Totally different type of fight, but really fun too. I've never caught a snook. You'll be one up on me. You are in for one fine time!!

I loved this debate, but I'm sure glad I'm not quite as cynical as some... Yet anyway.... Don, I would love (and I'm not kidding) to sit around and talk nuclear reactor ops sometimes. I haven't had a chance to really talk about it in years. I completely agree with you on the simplicity of the process. Except the "heater" in this case has terms like critical mass, critical geometry, k-effective, distributed neutron poisons, flux profiles, and lots of other really cool words. But once it's designed it is totally simple to operate. They are only fun toys when things go wrong. The ultimate "hours of boredom broken up by moments of sheer terror" job. So one would think I am a Nuclear Power advocate. After all, I ran one for 8 yrs. Well, not so fast. My problems are: If there is profit motive involved, I become very nervous. As you said, the fuel is the big issue. But maybe a bigger one is: What do you do with the waste? Anyway, I completely enjoyed this. Thanks all. Oh, and awesome post Weedy! One final point: 135 MW might be small by commercial standards, but there is a *hit box full of radiation and power there. A submarine reactor (powers a US Navy Warship) is not much bigger.

Harps, Excellent post. So a couple of points: The Nuclear scientists on her staff would have a bit of a vested interest in a tad of ass covering. Which is more than understandable. Also, I've worked with lots 'o scientists. I find they are no better assessors of risk than anyone else. In fact, we all pretty much suck at risk assessment. Several factors get in our way: If we don't understand it, we think it is more dangerous. The emotional impact of the bad event. To many, dying in a plane crash is much worse than dying instantly in a car crash. But in both cases, you die. This makes us give more weight to some events over others, even though the final outcome is the same. We don't have the capacity to truly understand the difference between say 1 in 1000 and 1 in 1,000,0000. We may understand intellectually, but not emotionally. In both cases, emotionally they are "highly unlikely". But it's funny how either may be acceptable risk if you agree with and/or understand the issue and how neither are acceptable if you don't (just a blanket statement. I am not talking about anyone here) Edit: Quick clarification: Paul said that she was probably backed up by Nuclear Scientists in her decision to shut down. I hope she was backed up by statisticians and/or reliability experts. Because when you are talking about "what is the risk" I want those professionals figuring it out. Not the scientists.

Don, Granted on your second and third points, but now what? The plant does not have emergency backup power (which implies to me 3 modes of power, normal, backup, and emergency backup) to some pumps. You said coolant pumps, but did the article say that specifically? Are they primary coolant pumps? Backups? Does the plant have any natural circulation in the event of pump failure? What is the normal power level of the plant? Can it be operated at a lower power level to make enough necessary isotopes while a plan is put together to shutdown and install backup power? If it is operated at a lower level, can decay heat be controlled in the event of a shutdown and loss of pump power (decay heat is the issue if there is a power failure. The plant will be shutdown and fission halted, but many fission fragments decay at a level necessitating cooling for several days, sometimes weeks after shutdown, depending on past power history)? If not, how long before decay heat causes temperature to rise to a level necessitating cooling?If power has not been restored, is there an emergency fill system capable of controlling heat? (this would be the end of the reactor, but no radiation would be released. It is typically a last ditch safety feature) What is the chance of any of this happening? How do you balance that vs. the need for the isotopes? What if people can't get medicine and it increases their chance of dying, which is possible. I could ask a thousand more questions. My point is of course safety standards will be compromised from time to time. Its called an exemption. If you feel an exemption is warranted, you put mitigation plans in place to do your best to maintain the intent of the safety standard. It is reviewed and accepted or rejected. There is no right and wrong here. There are many, many inputs to the decision and a group of people who are mostly trying to do the right thing. I'm glad I don't have to make this decision. Also add to that anytime anyone says nuclear everyone freaks the #$%^ out.

Hydro, Be careful. You are trying to bring pragmatism and maybe even common sense into a political arena. Travel at your own risk!

Took my son skiing at Castle. Went fishing in the Crow. Temp around zero, wind blowing Crowsnest style. Couldn't really cast, but could drive the nymphs down and follow with very little fly line. Hooked fish under bridge on like 3rd cast. Went to land fish, landed myself in the Crow instead as the ice sheet broke away. Jumped out, landed fish again, walked up to car. On way to car, my hands stopped working. By the time I got in the car (auto unlock not working, hands not working, so this took a bit of time) I'm starting to get worried. 10 minutes later my hands hurt worse than I could have imagined and I start to get shocky. 30 minutes later I'm ok, and discover I have another pair of gloves and jacket in the back of the car. Sweater is pretty wet, but I decide it's manageable. My pants are a bit wet, but what the hell, they're under waders. Fished the rest of the day, but caught only a few whities (that was the worst part!) Figured the rainbows were laughing at me. Actually, the worst part was the lecture I got when I told my wife this story.

There had to be something way wrong with that fish to: 1. Be in 4 ft of water 2. Allow someone to get close enough to take pictures 3. Not get caught the first time and then come back and get caught (if you read the story) No way that fish was healthy. If it was, there ain't a human on the planet that could hold on to it.

My dream team: Center: Bill Russell Many would argue for Wilt Chamberlain, but you have to look at number of championships. 11 Championships. No one else is even close Power Forward:Tim Duncan Boring, but a stud. Small Forward: Larry Bird I think there were certainly more athletic (Dominique, Dr. J, etc.) but this team needs a pure shooter. Who better than Basketball Jesus? 2 Guard: Duh. I wanna be like Mike Point Guard: I wanna say Magic, cuz I think he is the best ever. But since I am in Canada, I'll go with little Stevie Nash. He would average 20 assists a game with this team. Head Coach: Well, Red would be the easy choice here, but I'm gonna go with Phil Jackson because I think he is the only one to pull these ego's together. General Manager: Jerry West. Just because he could have been on the team as well.

James, Catching sharks on the beachfront, in water I wade in, is absolutely one of my favorite ways to fish. I figure they're always there, might as well catch them. That and the fact they are all power and speed and most of the ones you catch on the beach jump. Like rainbows, but with more teeth! But I have lots of friends that will not do it. They give lots of reasons, but I've alway suspected that they really don't want to know what is really swimming along with them while they wade. I've never fished for them with tourists around, though I have friends who have. Pretty funny stuff. But like you said, anyone who is not a bit nervous when they are around is flat loopy. I was fishing for specks in the middle of the night once, around 3 am. Hooked a nice fish. It was pitch black and I did not know where the fish was as I was fighting it. It hit my leg and I jumped 3 feet out of the water. I knew it was the trout, but my mind said SHARK. Laughed about it even as I was jumping. Told my dad about it, and said I was always a little nervous fishing at night. He said "well, at least you're human."

I've caught many, many redfish over the years. Maybe 5-10%% of those over 30. Until that beast, 0 over 40. He was one awesome animal. Don't mess with big bull sharks, you'll end up without a leg. I bet that got your blood pumping!

I think she works at the Met. She's really nice.

Man, I don't read the board for an evening and all hell breaks loose. Sounded like fun, wish I could have played. So while reading some of the replies, particularly from JMasson, I decided to go with a story about fishing the salt in a much warmer climate. Sorry it's not a fly fishing story, but I don't really have many of those, yet. I hope I don't sound like a wannabe, or a newby, or cliquish, or narrow minded in the telling of this far too long tale. There is nothing like the anticipation of a multi-day fishing trip with friends. I'm sure everyone reading this knows what I am talking about. The anticipation starts months in advance. You start going to the Fishing shops and stocking up way before the trip, knowing you are buying way more than you could ever use, but somehow unable to stop yourself. You start hiding purchases from your wife, girlfriend, whatever because she already thinks the trip is costing too much money and if she knew how much you were really spending, she would flip. The days leading up to the trip become almost unbearable. In my case I have a hard time getting to sleep, I organize and reorganize, and always seem to be missing something I cannot do without. Which is amazing because I have everything, except money in my bank account. When you finally leave for the trip the drive down with your friends does nothing so much as build the expectations of the fishing to levels which are usually unattainable. What follows is one such trip to the Breton Islands in Louisiana in June of 2003. The drive started from Houston at about 5 am, with 8 hrs to go to get to the boat launch in Venice, La. We had a convoy of 3 boats and the anticipation kept building. Unfortunately so did the wind. By the time we hit Venice it was blowing 25 or so and we were not really looking forward to the 10 mile trip across open Gulf of Mexico in boats meant for shallow water. When we left the Mississippi river and crossed into open water it was even rougher than we had feared. The 10 miles took us over an hour instead of the 20 minutes it should have taken. We got to the fishing camp (the camp is a barge converted to a fishing base with beds, AC, satellite tv, deck, a big ass kitchen, and an awesome cajun chef) nestled in a sound behind an island. We were soaking wet and beat to *hit. And the water clarity was crap because of all the wind. So after much debate, the decision was made to not fish that afternoon, but wait until the morning. Not an easy decision to make, but we really only lost a couple of hours of fishing. The beer and food soothed our feelings a bit. Ok, maybe more than a bit. Blackened Amberjack anyone? The next morning broke calm and clear. We hit the surf just as the sun was breaking the horizon and were just jittery to get at 'em. There were about 8 of us spread out on a sandbar, most of us throwing topwater baits waiting for the first "blow up" as a big trout or redfish slammed the surface lure. But after 10 minutes or so no one has a fish and I'm not noticing any bait activity. This is my first time fishing here, so I ask my friend why we aren't moving. He says "be patient" Screw that, I think. I've fished long enough to know waiting is a total waste if there is no bait activity. So I tell them I'm heading down the beach looking for bait. The laugh at me and say "good luck, but you'll be sorry. We'll be slammin' 'em any minute now." I started down the beach, a bit nervously for fear they may be right, looking for any sign of life. After 10 minutes or so of walking, I see some nervous water (bait!) and think "ok, here we go". Just as I start into the water, a huge group of birds fly over head that I had spooked off the island. I'm watching them as I make my first cast, and laughing as the odd one dive bombs me to scare me off (the island we are fishing around is a bird sanctuary). Just then, I hear the "blow up", resist the temptation to set the hook early, give the reel a small crank, feel the fish and then slam the rod back. 5 minutes later I'm slipping my hand under 23" of beautiful bronze Redfish. Sweet! I whip out another cast (suddenly paying no attention to the birds) start my "walk the dog" retrieve and am instantly rewarded with blow up #2. But this one is a bit different. We call it a "toilet flush". You have to see one to know why, but only a big fish can make that big of a racket. I hook this big beast, but loose it after 5 minutes. Turns out she had pulled the D-ring right out of my lure as I was near the end of my spool and putting the boots to her. I switch lures, cast, and toilet flush #2. 15 minutes later I'm releasing about a 32" redfish. What a start! Next cast, another big fish but this one breaks me off. I had tightened the drag because she almost had me spooled. I got the fish all the way back, but as she turned to make another run I realized, to my horror, that I had forgotten to back off on the drag (much less stretch because the fish was close). Snapo. And Crap. Remember the part about having more tackle than you could ever need? Well I only had two of these topwaters in red and white. One was broke (it was at least a season old) and one was lost (brand new), and it's only day one...... Now, during all this commotion, the guys (remember them) had noticed I had been fishing one spot for a while. And since they still hadn't caught anything (why do people stay in one place waiting for fish to come to them? I've never understood it.) they decided to come and potlick me. They start to arrive just as I'm tying on a different topwater. I tell them how it's been going, make a cast and another blow up. I start to wonder just how many fish we're going to catch this morning. Anyway, this fish is my first trout and she's fighting right on the surface thrashing all over the place. I notice a couple of other guys already hooked up as well. But suddenly the fish just stops fighting. I can feel the weight, see the head, but......oh, I understand. The head is all that is left. Some little (I hope) shark just got an easy meal. Now, you have to understand fishing with friends to get the next part. Everyone in the water knows that I've just lost a fish to a shark. The first thing I do is pick up my stringer with the 23" redfish on in and toss it WAY behind me (25 foot stringer). Then I start very slowly, almost imperceptibly, backing up. Backing up to get out of the waist deep water and the fish with lots of sharp teeth. Slowly so my friends don't laugh at me for being scared. A couple of minutes later I notice that all the guys have done the same. No one ever said a word, or did anything fast. Hard to say if we were more afraid of the sharks, or the teasing. Probably the teasing. (As an aside, the shark pics I have posted before are from this island the following year. The plan to fish for them started on this day.) Anyway, the fishing shut down after that. Probably because of the sharks. Maybe because we couldn't cast far enough from the knee deep water. We moved to another spot and had a really good, if not spectacular day of fishing. We finished up around 7 pm, with a break for lunch and a one hour nap. We were exhausted, but happy. But unlike most of the guys, I wasn't really finished. There was a good hour of light left, and the surf in the late evening can be great. I wanted to see if I could catch some bigger fish using live baitfish (I am an admitted heathen. Don't knock it if ya ain't tried it!) So I grab a 1/2 dozen from the live well, launch one of the camps 12 foot boats and make the very short trip to the lee of the island. I anchor, walk across the island (50 yds or so) to the open surf. 1st cast, big saltwater cat, which we consider a trash fish. 2nd cast miss something (crap, I hope I don't run out of bait). 3rd cast, hook something BIG. Now, I'm standing on a sand bar about knee deep fishing into 3 or 4 feet of water. I don't know what I have on, possibly a shark or a jack? Didn't seem like it because the fish was all power, but not a lot of speed. Stingray? Didn't feel like one. Big Redfish? No too big. Whatever it was, it almost spooled me 3 or 4 times. 30 minutes later, it's getting very dark. I'm no longer in the water (I may be crazy, but I'm not stupid) but standing on the beach. I have the fish, I still don't know what species, on the sandbar but can't get him across the shallow water. Every time he hits it he turns and runs back out. I don't think I can pull him across and I don't have the guts (sharks, anyone?) to wade through the deeper water between me and the sandbar. Just what is this thing? 15 minutes later, I finally get him across the sandbar. I think "I might just land this sucker". It's now pitch black. 15 minutes after that I'm pulling a little #2 circle hook out of the corner of the mouth of the biggest redfish I have ever seen. Hell, the biggest one I have ever imagined. My guess would be 48" and probably 40-50 lbs. It took me awhile to revive her as I had taken far to long to land her with the 12 lb test I was using. But revive her I did and she face washed me on the way out. No camera, no tape measure, just memory. I would say that's enough, and it probably is. But anytime I tell the guys how big, they just nod, smile knowingly and say "sure". I think they probably believe me, but they'll never let on. No evidence you see. But several of them were out the next night in the same spot! Me included, of course. The beer and food will always be there. But who knows when you're going to get the next big one? The rest of the trip was good, not spectacular, as most of these trips are. But that one day will keep me going back to the Breton Islands for years to come. And cause unrealistic expectations for the next one. I need a tackle shop, quick!

No way to find out what the real issues are from a CBC story about a process that is essentially political. I will say this: I've done safety and risk assessments. There is absolutely no way that she knows if the chance of accident is 1 in 1000 or 1 in 1,000,000 on something as complex as a nuclear power plant. And Harps, I know you were using a bit of hyperbole, but wiping out Eastern Canada? This ain't Chernobyl we are talking about. When I buy you that beer I'll tell you all about Three Mile Island (I had to study the accident as part of my Navy nuclear training). This will sound funny, and I'll get tons of flak, but TMI is actually a testament to the safety of the plants. With all they did wrong and the plant did not end up in China, tells me that they are a whole bunch safer than many would have us believe. Birchy, Better safe than sorry is fine, it it's really safety you are after. But all too often safety is used as an excuse to do nothing.

Hey Rock, I thought you didn't fish dry flies.......except for Griffins knats in certain back eddies. I'll be glad to take those off your hands.

Dan, Wish you could have made it, you would have enjoyed it. By the way, Lynn- If you are not already in Mexico, I want to thank you for the extra poundage I am carrying around because of you damn hash brown casserole you left at my house! I finished it myself because A. it was tasty and B. my wife said "eat that before I do". If I need extra clothes, I'm forwarding you the bill.

Windchill this morning -54. Now THAT's winter!

That was it. Except I was in HL during that particular little cold snap. We were doing rigless jobs with a small mast truck. We had no idea if the hydraulics would work or not. But it did, and we finished our work and got the heck out of there!