Is Brownstone Right?

[DonAndersen]

Brownstone has got a point. Without Oil/Gas, things will change big time. But they are changing now. Conventional oil/gas is about gone. The oil sands will provide most of the employment. The population of Alberta will gravitate towards the oil sands. Small town Alberta populations will shrink. Towns like Edson, Dayton Valley and Rocky Mountain House, Oyen, Brooks and on and on are going to see a reduction in populations. The populations that remain in those towns will see a profound reduction in wages as unemployment increases. Agri-business/Foresty will not be capable of employing the folks.

 

As far as Oil/Gas providing most of the money. In part this is true - without it, Alberta will become the agrarian community it was about 1940 or so. It was a have not Province. Clearly though, that will not be in our lifetime. The oil sands will continue to provide both employment and tax money to keep the rest of the province going along.

 

The changes to small town Alberta will be slow. People who live there now will be reluctant to leave - I know I'm not going anywhere. But I'm set - got retirement funds. Don't need an oil/gas income any longer. The young folks will be gone though. Ultimately, the populations will be reduced to pre-1960's #'s. Make take 50 years.

 

Even local Govts see the writing on the wall. The County of Clearwater derives 80% of their tax moneys from the energy sector. W/O those taxes, the services will be reduced or the taxes to the residents will increase to off-set the energy taxes. Now how would you like to see your taxes increase 4>5 fold.

 

I gotta agree with Brownstone - it isn't going be pretty.

 

catch ya'

 

 

Don

[JMasson]

Its definitely not going to be pretty. It's a scary thing for a young guy like me to think about. I own a small business...I'm a carpenter. Started doing carpentry when I was in university as a part-time thing over the summers cause it paid well. I finally realized that I could make more money as a full time carpenter or framing (especially framing) than I could with my degree, so I left university. What's the only reason I can get paid as well as I do? O&G. Now that I've been out of university for a couple years I'm doing everything I can to pay my student loans off faster so I can go back to university before O&G goes bust....it's a vicious cycle haha.

 

There are a lot of people that are dependent on O&G and if it goes bust you're going to see a lot tradesmen without jobs. Some people may think that's a big deal but not everybody is debt free. Most of the people I hear talk about how good it would be if O&G goes bust have no idea what it's like to not be able to pay your bills or your mortgage or feed your kids. I don't know what I would do if I was out of a job right now, I don't know how I would pay my bills. It's that simple for me. I absolutely love the environment. I've donated time and money to many conservation organizations in the past and will continue to do so. But I also need to pay my bills and feed myself and right now O&G is helping to pay the bills.

 

 

James

[Castuserraticus]

Every one-industry town/city/country goes the same way eventually. Look at the situation in Detroit/Windsor and the steel (rust) belt centres of Canada and the US. Adaptation is the long term key to survival as long as the transition from the old economy is not too sharp. Albert should be able to prosper because of all the "over educated suits" we have here. The next energy sources will likely be intensely technology based rather than just burning something so will require the engineers and other scientists the O&G business gives us in abundance. The Alberta industry is a world leader in O&G technology development. These skills will do us well in the future unless the government succeeds in milking the business to death and drives the brains away. People are mobile and move to where the opp's are, especially the best and brightest/ highest skilled. Brownstone didn't come here for the cod fishing.

 

AS the old bumper sticker said "don't p#$@ it all away."

[SanJuanWorm]

Its not gonna go bust any time soon.

[reevesr1]

Conventional oil and gas has been about dead in Texas for essentially my whole life. But if you drive around now there are more rigs than I have ever seen due to shale gas, bypassed (small) pay, brownfields, etc., etc. The industry may be on its last legs, but my bet is those legs are going to last for the foreseeable future.

 

And I don't think many (myself included) truly understand the scope of the oilsands. I know there are oil majors that expect the Ft. Mac oilsands to be their biggest oil producing field in the word in 15-20 yrs. That is a big ass economic engine you are talking about. With that happening, and all the talent (and that's what I find Alberta best at supplying) around, conventional oil and gas (and CBM, and Shale gas) will keep kicking along.

 

Anyway, the horse may be beat up, but it ain't dead yet. I hope.

 

All that said, keep putting your money in the bank while you can.....

 

Edit: and to keep on topic. I would disagree a bit with Brownstone, you can't trace every cent back to O&G. Agriculture and tourism are players as well. So only say 90% or so back to oil and gas. If it did go away, this province would be unrecognizable. A few might like the change. The VAST majority would not. At least the fishing would be better.

[Inconnu]

I don't know if it is going to end any time soon, but to not think of the future seems short sighted. Especially if you are looking ahead to your grand children and so on.

Firstly the O&G industry does support the economy, at the moment there is little question about that. The offset of this is that agricultural land is seemingly held in disdane and consumed in huge quantities for horizontal development. I really think that Canada and in particular Western Canada should be doing research into alternative power so that when the day comes we are ready and can maintain the economy without crashing as is suggested and as will no doubt happen if we do not look ahead. Wind power is definitely one alternate source, but I believe we need to look even further for new ideas. Sure O&G is the prime mover today but we are living in a house of cards if we do not look further...

[DonAndersen]

Guys,

 

For a glimpse of the future, next time you drive down highway #22, you are passing by the following towns/villages:

Home Camp, North Turner Valley, Okalta Flats, Decalta Flats, Dogtown, Snob Hill, Townsite, Naptha, Little Chicago, Little New York, Home south camp, and on and on. They used to be towns/villages that existed once - some still do. When the oil/gas ran out - most disappeared. Fewer people live in the Millarville>Longivew area than when I was a kid. Canada is full of resource towns that don't exist anymore. Anyone ever heard of Lilly. Was a coal mining town north of Blairmore - heard that 5,000 people lived there once. Nobody now.

What a lot of folks have to figure out is the MAXIMUM number of people are employed is any industry is 10 seconds before the *hit hits the wall. Calgary, you'll be able to buy a whole subdivision for taxes.

Such is life.

 

Don

[SanJuanWorm]

I believe most of those towns are gone due to the efficiences in todays oilfield. Doesn't take 60 days to drill a deep well any more. It'll continue to develop. My company now directionally drills over sattellite tranmission. There is no need for a directional driller on the rig. So what does this spell for the DD's? What does technology bring next?

 

Read a book called "The Oil Factor" boom to bust to boom

[Inconnu]

I think that regional centralization of many public features such as hospital/eductation etc. has decimated small towns as well. Instead of providing money to sustain schools and medical centres in small town Alberta, it went to developing the same infrastructure in the larger cities and led to people moving to where they could better access facilities.

Not to say there are other contributing factors but that is, I believ, one of the bigger ones.

[Guest bigbadbrent]

why the hell does black diamond have a hospital and high river..they're small towns and they're doing fine

[cheeler]

Development of different industries and becoming a research, development, and technology center in the world is the only real way to continue to sustain the economy after the next 50 or 60 years. We can't compete in the manufacturing industries due to our cost of labour and declining population after the baby boomers start to retire, nor will Alberta go back to being agrarian - there's already too much technology to do the work for it to be a large employer.

 

Of course, if someone happens to finally bring fusion energy to mass production, the traditional markets and all the towns it supports are screwed anyways.

[cheeler]

why the hell does black diamond have a hospital and high river..they're small towns and they're doing fine

 

I remember a teacher in high school saying some of the older hospitals were built during the cold war, far enough away that they would survive if the big cities got nuked.

[Guest bigbadbrent]

Why doesn't that suprise me

[Brownstone]

Thanks guys, I know i may have went on a little bit of a jackass rant last night and didn't mean to offend anybody, but thats my opinion. I've been ALL over this province, every corner, oil IS the business...

 

...and to anybody who has not been up to Fort McMurray to see that MASSIVE project, go, your head will spin..and to think 20 years ago it was questionable if that project was even fisable...

 

and for those of you who can;t imagine how things could change so drastically .. I grew up in Newfoundland, we were a have province in the 70's with the fishery booming, but through overfishing, poor resource management, well we all know what happened..you don't have to look to far to find a Newfoundlander living 5000 km from "home" .. the fishery crashed, a 300,000 fishing package (boat, nets etc.) sold off for less than the cost to build them (if you could find a buyer) government funding/training programs sprung up to "save" the fisherman .. without sucess. Take a trip back east (and i don;t mean Ontario, i mean east of Quebec) and you'll see what a economic shift can do to a region ..

[reevesr1]

Of course, if someone happens to finally bring fusion energy to mass production, the traditional markets and all the towns it supports are screwed anyways.

 

Don't hold your breath

[Weedy1]

The majority of the small town hospitals, school, and old folk homes in rural Alberta were built during the Lougheed times. It was a ridiculously huge waste of coin and nothing more than a way of getting votes.

 

The disappearing act of small town Alberta also has to do with changes in the farming industry. Not many mom and pop operations out there anymore.

[Taco]

Close Weedy close, Loughheed started the process, Getty ramped it up to the max.

[Weedy1]

Yah I forgot about Getty's contribution. I really shouldn't complain though as a good chunk of my work has come from the renovations the rural hospitals have been through. Thanks Don and Peter.

[DonAndersen]

Big..brent.. says "why the hell does black diamond have a hospital and high river..they're small towns and they're doing fine"

 

The hospital in Black Diamond was built to replace the one opened in the last '20s. The original hospital was located near the banks of the Sheep River SW of Turner Valley 3/4 mile. Guess after 40 years of service it was past time for a replacement. Just how would I know that - wife was born there, my Mother worked there.

Schools are fewer all the time. From Millarville>Turner Valley there were 2. The high school where my mother attended is long gone. The North Turner Valley school was shutdown and sold about 45 years ago. It's now a home. School number reduction are a direct result of low energy costs and improved road conditions.

Both Turner Valley and Black Diamond are growing due to the "bloat" from Calgary. People looking for a small town atmosphere and willing to drive.

 

catch ya'

 

 

Don

[Glenbow]

I like fishing.

 

 

 

 

EDIT Sorry to hijack the thread.

[Tako]

Its not gonna go bust any time soon.

 

That's what everyone was saying about lumber in BC back in 2000-2002. Then the beetle got us. Now everyone is jumping off the forestry bandwagon, and onto the mining one. It's not wise to be naive. Always plan for the worst, and always have a backup plan.

[Taco]

Adapt or die, adapt or die, either that or live under the Centre St bridge

[Weedy1]

Always plan for the worst, and always have a backup plan.

 

So what's your plan Tako? Centre street bridge with Taco? He'll need someone to keep him warm......

[Tako]

My backup plan? Work in Alberta!!!!!!

[Taco]

Ten thousand comedians Weedy, ten thousand comedians :P