Ulmo Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 considering winter really isnt even over yet, the mountains got above average snowfall and its expected to be a rainy spring - just how long is the runoff gonna be? whens it even gonna start for that matter? just hoping the weather takes a turn for the better... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kungfool Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 There is a lot more snow in the mountains this year than most. Lets hope it warms up very gradually or we are going to see another 2005 type run off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryfly Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 The Oldman drainage will be under stress this spring and summer. As noted, a fast melt will not be a good thing. Click here. Select a station (green button) and then select "figure" in the pop up window for the snow pack chart. The five main slow packs that supply the SW rivers are approx. 45% above average. BTW ... the snow equivalent (using the accepted 10:1, snow:water ratio) at Flattop (that supplies the Waterton) is 43 feet of snow. 43 feet is quite a lot. Akamina Pass has a mere 19 feet of snow. They normally get a lot of snow up there. Now here is a piece of government wizardry. Here is the official statement for the Oldman drainage on March 16, 2011. Mountain runoff forecasts (natural volumes for March to September 2011) Milk River basin * Below average Oldman River basin * Slightly below average to average for the St. Mary, Belly River and Waterton River at Waterton Park * Above average for Oldman River at Brocket and average for Oldman River at Lethbridge "Slightly below average to average for the St. Mary, Belly River and Waterton River at Waterton Park" This falls into the general category of: WTF? Probably a good idea to ignore the official line and git yer sheep and wimmin on high ground. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigalcal Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 last summer the Upper Oldman drainage was so up and down. This year should be interesting. I'm wishing for the best ....as always. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LastBoyScout Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 A lot depends on spring moisture. In 1995 we had average snow pack but 4 inchs of warm rain brought the whole works down. I did notice the Waterton and Oldman Dams seem very full so there is no flood relief at all there. I think the variability of the water last year was the high water table from the never ending rains, the water had no where to go but run to the rivers and streams on the surface. Long and slow starting today would be good for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
troutlover Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 well if the weather forecasts are correct things will start melting starting next week and continue for a couple of weeks with freezing at night so lets hope it stays true to the forecast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ulmo Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 a gradual runoff should be what we get, its supposed to be a cool, wet spring with below average temps out west here, many factors to be sure and every agency has a different take, hope for the best eh?... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taco Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Wait'll June when the big flow comes.........mountains don't usually completely let go till the first of summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pipestoneflyguy Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Pretty aggressive melt going on in my backyard (Lake Louise) for the last two weeks - about 25% to 75% river surface exposed depend on it's lie to mid-day sun - more open stretches, such as the castle area are wide open now. I am already seeing ground exposure on south facing slopes, but that said, I also went chest deep trying to access one spring hole on the Bow on Sunday, ...with snowshoes on LOL. In the lower valley around Lake Louise, the volume is there, but not alot of density other than on lower river ice itself, snow seems to be rotting out very fast with this consistant warm weather - Freeze up was very fast this past fall so many lower basins actually flooded over creating some stunningly thick iceburgs left sitting on islands - I snowshoed the lower accessable Pipestone and about 25-50 % of it's surface is exposed as well (quite early) and everthing is flowing well in both the Bow and Pipestone plus other smaller creeks (I've checked Baker, Outlet, Corral, etc etc in the last two weeks and all are running strong) - all in all, it looks pretty typical and generally I would predict good spring fishing ahead for the headwater to Banff. I ran into the Parks Biologist, and she said her data seemed to support my observations, snowpack is really only slightly more than typical in most of this area. Mind you, always potential for more this time of year. I looking forward to getting into my first bully holes either this or next weekend. Not accusing nobody of nothing, but obviously the perpetuation of record snowpack rumours, suits the bottom line of some industries in such a manner that sometimes the "water gets a little muddy" (excuse the pun) when it comes to discussing snow volumes in terms of generalities vs what can be supported by actual data LOL albeit the snowbanks in town look more like the late eighties and early nineties, that does not neccasarily mean we should expect an epic run-off Just my 2 cents on my amateur observations....take it with a grain of salt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seanbritt Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I ran into a seasoned angler once who had good advice: runoff will come when it comes and the river will get as high as it wants to. If you want to fish go out and fish. If you don't, don't. Not scientific, but sums it up for me! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrinhurst Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I ran into a seasoned angler once who had good advice: runoff will come when it comes and the river will get as high as it wants to. If you want to fish go out and fish. If you don't, don't. Not scientific, but sums it up for me! Well said! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigalcal Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Well said! Ditto Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigbowtrout Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Ditto +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryfly Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Runoff is why we have lakes ... and we will probably need the lakes this year in the SW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveM Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The Oldman drainage will be under stress this spring and summer. As noted, a fast melt will not be a good thing. Click here. Select a station (green button) and then select "figure" in the pop up window for the snow pack chart. The five main slow packs that supply the SW rivers are approx. 45% above average. BTW ... the snow equivalent (using the accepted 10:1, snow:water ratio) at Flattop (that supplies the Waterton) is 43 feet of snow. 43 feet is quite a lot. Akamina Pass has a mere 19 feet of snow. They normally get a lot of snow up there. Now here is a piece of government wizardry. Here is the official statement for the Oldman drainage on March 16, 2011. Mountain runoff forecasts (natural volumes for March to September 2011) Milk River basin * Below average Oldman River basin * Slightly below average to average for the St. Mary, Belly River and Waterton River at Waterton Park * Above average for Oldman River at Brocket and average for Oldman River at Lethbridge "Slightly below average to average for the St. Mary, Belly River and Waterton River at Waterton Park" This falls into the general category of: WTF? Probably a good idea to ignore the official line and git yer sheep and wimmin on high ground. I'm confused, Clive... Why would we need sheep AND wimmin??? That's just being greedy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryfly Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 BobLoblaw HA HA HA! Need the sheep in case the wimmin are "two baggers." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryfly Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 We cannot have warm weather too fast and for too long. Easy does it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reevesr1 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Another meter of snow at Castle the last few days. Made for great (if a tad heavy) skiing, but a lot more snow to melt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SanJuanWorm Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 R.U.N.N.O.F.T. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryfly Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 R.U.N.N.O.F.T. ? I'll bite. Had a couple of phrases but this is a family show, so thought better of it. Run uphill NOW! No other fishing trips. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SanJuanWorm Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 R.U.N.N.O.F.T. ? I'll bite. Had a couple of phrases but this is a family show, so thought better of it. Run uphill NOW! No other fishing trips. Oh brother where are thou. Movie quote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birchy Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=r-u-n-n-o-f-t Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SanJuanWorm Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 On a side off topic not from the off topicness, Birchy every time i see your avatar i think it looks like a KKK uniform. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest JayVee Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 LOL...me too SJ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
troutlover Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 HA HA so do i We should start a poll Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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