reevesr1

I got #4 locked up. Trumps all the rest. I'm in.

Come on rehsfylf. Of course you can find a game where the defence sucks, but the team wins. Particularly when the team in question has arguably the best goaltender in the world behind them, and he's on a hell of a roll. That's sorta like finding one cold winter and saying, see, no global warming. Hey, that was fun.

I read the two second thing in a book once, ie, 2 seconds from intake to spit. I would imagine that has to be species specific, or maybe an average. If the spit is less than a second, like you said there is no chance to hook that fish nymphing with an indicator, or anyway else for that matter. It would be extremely difficult to react fast enough to hook the fish even if you saw the take. I actually find your observation depressing. 2 seconds is bad enough! This has been a great topic. In the nymph book I read, it said that if you think of all the things that have to go right to hook a fish while nymphing it's amazing we catch any at all. As such, the author also said that you have to treat hooking the fish a success. Anything after that is a bonus. I know this sort of fishing does not have the visceral appeal of dry fly fishing (no way to top the sight of a fish sucking down a dry) but is at least as difficult to master and lends itself to experimentation more than any other fishing method I have ever used.

DrBullet, I enjoyed that story greatly. Thanks.

I'm skiing Castle on Friday! 85cm so far this week, more on the way!

Darren-May 5-Boy Dave-April 30, girl (I can't imagine Dave has enough testosterone to conceive a male child)

After you upload to imageshack, it goes to a page with different links to the image. The top one is called "direct link". Cut that whole thing out and paste it into the insert link to image dialog box. That should do it.

Mike, Go to the ImageShack site and sign up. Once signed up, I think you get directed to the upload image page. Hit the browse button and find your image. Once selected, hit the resize button. I resize to 15" monitor. Don't know if that is right, but it works. Then hit upload. Once uploaded, hit the Insert Image button in your post. A dialog box will pop up. Paste the location of your image into the dialog box and click ok. That should do it. It took me a few tries to figure it out, but once you get the hang it is pretty simple.

Remember what is happening down there. There is no "strike" per se. The fish is flicking a fin to move from his lie, sucking in your nymph, and flicking the fin to go back. It will not move very far, and if it expends more energy than is in the food source (and a #18 nymph ain't got much protein) then it won't survive in the long run. So they are masters at conservation of energy. Also, fish sample at the top of their mouths. And they are very used to sucking in stuff that isn't food, like sticks, feathers, grass, whatever. So as soon as your nymph hits the fishes mouth, it knows it isn't food. But remember that they suck in their food. It takes around 2 seconds for the physiological process of completing the sucking in until he can blow it out. The thought that they can instantly push it out is incorrect. I takes a finite, if short, period of time. What does this mean to the nymph fisherman? Well, you aren't actually (or for most of us, not very often) striking on a "hit". Much more often, you are striking when the indi stops because your nymph is in the fishies mouth and the current has caused it to go tight. Want to know if you are setting the hook quick? Take a look at where he is hooked. Top of the mouth means quick hookset, the more you get toward the side, the slower you were. And you've got around two seconds from start to finish, or the fish spits the nymph. Now, does it matter light/heavy nymphs and positioning? I personally would think it matters way more in slow water. Think of your rig drawn above. Unless you are lucky enough to see the gentle take of the bottom fly (those few, but satisfying times where the indi barely moves and your ninja like reflexes notices it and you strike) , you have to wait until the whole rig passes and the indi slows or goes under. There is a bit of extra delay because of the distance (1-2 ft max) from bottom fly to top. If the heavy fly was on bottom, then the lighter ones would still lead, but you would see the strike a little quicker (remember there is only 8-12" between flies, but up to 9' from the top fly to your indi-that 9' is way more important). In the summer, when fishing faster water, I think this matters way less. The speed of the current is completely your ally in this game. Faster current, faster indi reaction, more hookups per take. I do have a question though-if the current is faster on surface than on bottom, wouldn't the indi lead? And if it does, wouldn't positioning matter less? Whatever, next time I go out I'll try the heavy rig on bottom in the winter. I don't know why I haven't before as some pretty good fishermen recommend it. note: The highly accomplished nymph fisherman, of which I am not yet a member, catches way more fish than the rest of us on the subtle take. They see that almost imperceptible bobble of the indi, an strike on it way more often than the rest of us. You REALLY have to pay attention and be in tune with your indicator to master this. I think that is why the really good fishermen kick our asses in the winter. The slower current demands close attention because it just takes too long for the system to tighten up in slow water. Fast water is a different matter, thankfully.

I agree that everything aside, quality scoring chances would follow a normal dist. But that assumes you are taking a random sampling of games, not taking games where they are winning vs games they are loosing and trying to draw gaa and save percentage statistical assumptions from them. If, as I contend, that quality chances against go up when a team is playing from behind-then the trend you site could be skewed by picking games they lost. So, lets put all the numbers together over the last 20 games or so (I'll just use your old numbers cuz I'm too lazy to compile new ones, and I just averaged even though one data set is 10 games and one is 11, so I'm probably +/- 1% on save percentage and .05 on GAA or so off). If my math is correct, over all the games you sited: Shots Flames: 662, shots opponents 647. GAA Flames: around 3.4, save percentage 89% GAA Opponents around 3.4, save percentage 89% Record 11-8-2 Seems reasonable? For the season, Kipper is 43-20-5 with a save percentage of 90% (vs. 89% in the latest sample, fairly insignificant) and GAA of 2.9 (so 3.4 is singificantly higher. This must mean significantly more shots-and consequently a fairly mediocre record over that time. What's it all mean? It's the defenses fault for giving up more shots. Or maybe not.

Hmmm... Big Crowsnest Rainbow, below a cliff face. I think I remember crawling on my belly on a Crowsnest cliff face this summer trying for a big rainbow. Unsuccessfully I should add. Nice pics Max. Funny, doesn't really look like Ft. Mac to me......

April and May are my favorite months. But if I were planning on traveling and had limited time to fish, I would wait for late June or July. You are taking much less chance with the weather, particularly the wind. You can get long stretches of pretty big wind in April/May. But if you hit it right, it can be just amazing fishing. Fishing in June and July can be off the charts as well, but get ready to sweat. Lots. Clouser is just a classic. I like the shrimpy looking fly in the second pic. I would think the third is maybe some sort of mullet imitation? And the spoon fly! Some fly fishermen in the states won't use it. Stupid fly fishermen. My first, and to this date only redfish on a fly rod was caught on a spoon fly. The drum would have been a blast on the fly rod. But that big red! Fantastic bud. I caught a 24"er on a 5 wt and it was a war. A 24" red goes like 4-5 lbs. A 26# red? Wow!! Did you get a length? I'm guessing a bit over 40? I've caught lots that big, like hooking on to a truck. On a fly rod it would be awesome. I am very jealous.

Location is in the little shopping center just in front of Heritage Lakes. Between 2 and 2A on Dunbow Road. I don't think they carry Simms, but I could be wrong. The Snowbee gear did look sweet.

Charles Barkley used that one on a national telecast once. Caused a bit of a stir!

Nope. I was going to pee on it to mark it, but they wouldn't let me.

It's open. Nice shop, went there today. My plan was to spend $0, but the well stocked fly section sucked me in. Got out for pretty cheap. They also let me drool on a Hardy cartridge reel as well. Wish christmas was closer! Very nice shop, better conversation. And they certainly have Snowbee gear!

Casuatlies in Afghanistan by country: http://icasualties.org/OEF/DeathsByYear.aspx In the last few years, roughly 3 to 1 US casualties to Canada. So propotionally more Canadians as a measure of total # of troops. But in a thread that is accusing (and rightly) a show of belittling the Canadian contribution, it is a bit of bad form to belittle the US contribution. Whether you agree with Iraq or not (and I could make a very strong case that when all this is said and done, Iraq will be a more stable place than it ever would have been under Hussein) it's not like the US has abandoned Afghanistan. I agree completely that we lost sight of the goal, but we are still there in the greatest numbers.

Hey Rp3, Did you get the drum and red on a fly rod? That may be the first "art shot" I've ever seen of a black drum! They don't have a lot of status down south, because they tend to be a meat eater and are hard to catch on atrificial bait. However, I've always liked catching them. They fight fantastic, lb for lb better than a red. We call the big one's BUs or Big Uglies. They get really, really ugly as they get big. The fishing south of NO is as good as anywhere I've ever been. Hope you had fun!

I highly doubt Bass Pro Shop scouted Wholesale Sports and said "hey, let's copy them! They just got bought out so obviously know what they are doing." From my experience, Bass Pro does a very, very good job of market research. I would be willing to hazard a guess that if you compared the number of spin fishermen province wide to fly fishermen the selection of gear at Bass Pro reflects that. Also, almost all fly shops I know of are smaller, intimate shops. That is what I think they are trying to mimic-a more intimate shop, just inside a behemoth. If I had a fly shop I would try to keep it a bit smaller to ensure each customer in the shop got personal attention. I'm going to try to make sure my sales staff talks to the guy looking at the $800 Sage rod as opposed to someone looking at an Ugly Stick. All that said, my fly shopping will be at Hanson's and Fish Tales. I may go check out that new shop today down south however.

I read rehfsiflyf's detailed analysis of pre and post trade performance. Well researched, and a reasonable conclusion. My only question would be has he identified the cause of the recent slide, or just another symptom? In the games before the slide, I would imagine the team was playing with the lead most nights. I'm not a hockey expert, but in sports in general when a team has a lead, particularly a sizable one they tend to go into more of a defensive shell. In hockey, doesn't this mean the forwards stay back more? And isn't the tendency is to not try to limit opposing team's shots, but limit scoring chances? The team playing behind plays more offensively, defensemen pinching in, yes? So in my mind, that would lead to the team playing from ahead getting fewer chances (because they are playing defensive), but when they do get a scoring chance, it is a good one (2 one 1 breaks, that sort of thing). But the team playing behind is getting lots of shots from the outside, but few good chances, therefore the ahead teams goalie has a better save percentage than the goalie of the team behind. Also, how is the defence playing? Wouldn't that have a huge bearing on both save percentage and GAA? Better chances would guarantee both GAA and save percentage to get worse wouldn't it? It could just be the goaltending, but I doubt it is that simple. One of the things I have learned from diagnosing issues with systems or processes is to try hard not to confuse symptoms for causes, and also to pay very close attention when the cause you come up with confirms your preconceived notion. In other words if you don't like the goaltender and your analysis points to the goaltender, question you analysis hard. As to pre and post trade. Look back to Vancouver. How long did it take them to start clicking post Sundin? (The return of the best goaltender in the world aside). 10 games? Some of that was due to Sundin not playing, but some of that was due to process change-with Sundin being the change. In terms of process, Sundin was brought in to improve efficiency. And it looks as though he has. What people never tell you about process change is that when you change process to improve efficiency, short term efficiency will certainly suffer as the system adjusts to the new process. The Flames are smack in the middle of that. Another factor in all this is injuries. 2 key players (and no one needs to remind me I don't like one of them) have been out for awhile now. The team played well without them for awhile. This happens quite often as the other players "pick up the slack." But in almost every case I can think of, after some period of time the players "picking up the slack" wear down and the true impact of the loss of key players starts to be seen. The Flames are in the middle of that as well. Another couple of posts recommend Sutter "kicking some ass". I've always been fascinated when fans feel star players are dogging it. Does anyone truly believe that with 10 games left in the season the star players on this team are not trying? I've worked for a long time. Sometimes more effectively than others. But my failures have rarely been due to not trying. My strong belief is those guys are trying as hard as they can. It just isn't working. There is also a bit of a move afoot to get rid of Keenan. Again, really? With 10 games left? Crazy move, IHMO. There are 10 games left. One of the key players is back. The other is back before the playoffs. Relax everyone, things will be ok. See what happens when I can't fish? Long rambly posts on *hit I know nothing about.

I forgot about the waders. I bought a very similar pair for my son like 3 yrs ago, with nary a leak yet. No lifetime warranty, but who the hell cares. They cost 100 bones, and they last.

Quite possibly the worst photoshop ever. My wife always thought I looked like the guy on Coach. Now that Steve, after only 2 yrs or so, has figured out how to post pictures, it's like he can't stop.

I was there yesterday for an hour or so. Nothing much happening in the aquarium, too bad. Fly fishing area: I'm not so sure terrible is the right word. They had TFO, Sage, Loop, Loomis, Lamson, Tibor, Orvis, Ross etc. as well as their own line of rods and reels. I thought some of their own rods (White River?) looked and felt ok for the cost. They also had some very low/entry level gear of their own as well. Fly rods from $50 to $800 (High end sage), reels around the same. I'm not much of a reel guy, but they had a Tibor for like $850 that was one pretty piece of work, though I can never see myself buying something like that. Fly selection left something to be desired, though some of the packs were ok I guess. Prices were definitely not low, but reasonable for most things. Flies were overpriced I thought. What they do bring is some pretty good prices on non-name clothing. Their line of fishing apparel seems much like the Magellan stuff I buy in the states. Built to directly compete with Columbia at around 1/2 the cost. Everything was ok, basically just like every other Bass Pro. They will figure out what works here and sell that. I'll go about as often as I went to the one in Houston. Maybe once a year.

Meet ya there in a couple of weeks I hope!

Deleted, too much of a hijack...