2017 Flood?

[trailhead]

Well checking on the snow pillow and it's way up there. Little Elbow is at 500 mm snow water equivalent and the maximum normal range is 475 mm with the minimum 350 mm. Most of the other stations in the Bow drainage are about the same in terms of snow pack. From the looks of the melt, it has only started. So; Dear God, let it be a cool dry spring.

[fishteck]

The biggest problem is that without some rain and continued higher temperature above freezing at night the snow pack will stay there for a while and then in June all hell will let loose! Lets hope this weeks weather continues and start the runoff as early as possible, because if not the Bow will be unfishable for a large chunk of the summer

[scel]

Well checking on the snow pillow and it's way up there. Little Elbow is at 500 mm snow water equivalent and the maximum normal range is 475 mm with the minimum 350 mm. Most of the other stations in the Bow drainage are about the same in terms of snow pack. From the looks of the melt, it has only started. So; Dear God, let it be a cool dry spring.

 

I think we want above average temperatures and normal amount of rain so the snowpack starts melting before June, when we should be into warmer temperatures and higher probability of rain.

 

Also, if the normal range is 350-475 mm, then the normal range is 125mm. If this is a normal distribution (of which most people use, others being Poisson or Fourier distributions), 67% of the time, the snowpack will be 350-475mm. 25mm extra is not far off the norm, really being slightly above average.

 

I think that we have a month or so to temper our worries.

[jgib01]

Drove past the Crow and into B.C last night taking my son out to a Scout camp. With the daytime temps we've had this week, the Crow (and on the other side, Michel) was pretty high and dirty. I think the snowpack has started to diminish... it looks like less snow through the Pass already compared to last weekend. Guaranteed, no matter what happens for weather we won't have a repeat of last year, as there is still a significant amount of snow up in them thar hills. I think temps getting into the double digits from time to time with occasional rain over the next few weeks means a more "typical" runoff this year.