Is There Something Weird Going On

[DonAndersen]

Here's what is known:

 

1] a 60 Minutes story a couple of weeks ago show-cased a guy whose contended that there had been 2 Saudi's of natural gas energy discovered in the past 2 years.See: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/11/12/...in7048737.shtml

And a hell of a quote "Wait, we have twice as much natural gas in this country, is that what you're saying, than they have oil in Saudi Arabia?" Stahl asked.

"I'm trying to very clearly say exactly that," he replied.

Chesapeake Energy is the largest independent gas producer in the country. McClendon is on a mission to get the U.S. off foreign oil and dirty coal.

 

2] T. Boone Pickens to wandering around telling every one about how they should switch to natural gas. see: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/23/...in4541322.shtml

 

3] And CND's Natiion Energy Board is to rule on the Mackenzie Valley Pipeline [proposed by Imperia,l Conoco Phillips among others].very soon. See: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/north/story/2010/...peline-neb.html

 

So the question is:

 

Who is Bull Shitting WHO? What's the need for a pipeline if the US has that much natural gas.

 

catch ya'

 

Don

[cheeler]

The oi lsands alone could take the output from the Mackenzie pipeline.

 

A conversion to natural gas might seem great, but that's just because the price is so low right now. Shale gas is also being fought against by many environmental groups, including TU because it requires a lot of water, and can potentially contaminate water sources - it's akin to the oil sands where extraction is going to cost more and as conventional production goes down, the price will go up.

 

There was a story in one of the mags last month about a formation in Pennsylvania already having trouble because companies are drawing much more water than they are allotted from the streams.

 

 

[DonAndersen]

cheeler,

 

Some things I'm wondering about in your post

 

1] The Oil Sands are going to need a BCF/d?

2] TU is opposing water usage by the oil industry? Since when. Still waiting for a position paper from TUC - been only 6>7 years. TUC gotta be careful not to piss off the meal ticket.

3] High water use producing natural gas? Coal bed methane usually means water to surface to dewater formation. Shale gas needs water - for what? Fract?

 

 

regards,

 

 

Don

[reevesr1]

A conversion to natural gas might seem great, but that's just because the price is so low right now. Shale gas is also being fought against by many environmental groups, including TU because it requires a lot of water, and can potentially contaminate water sources - it's akin to the oil sands where extraction is going to cost more and as conventional production goes down, the price will go up.

 

I know that there is conditional support for shale gas from some environmental groups, I think due to lowering of carbon footprint if the economy begins to convert to natural gas. The condition is of course the method of extraction-the huge amounts of water used in frac'ing shale gas formations and assurances that ground water is protected. Not to get into a philosophical discussion (which in most cases here means name calling), the prize is truly game changing in North America-making the assumption that we could actually change to a nat gas economy. Easier said than done I think.

 

Personally, I think natural gas prices are going to be low for the foreseeable future, though I fully admit predicting these things is a fools game (which I am foolishly participating in). The amount of shale gas in North America is astounding. If you look at a map, it seems to be in every state and province. Until there is a massive shift in demand, which is many years away, the potential supply will far exceed demand, keeping prices low.

 

As has been the case in the past, some will be against this energy source because they are against all energy sources. Some will be for it because they are for all energy sources. Most of us are in the middle trying to figure out how to weigh "cheap" energy in our own back yard (and lowering dependence on energy from some unsavory sources) vs the environmental impact of extraction.

 

 

 

 

 

[cheeler]

1) SAGD will need the energy for the steam, how much depends on how the oil price is affecting developement but it's either gas or nuclear

2) I think it was American Angler I read it in, may not be on the forefront of their agenda, but from past reading it probably depends on who is leading the organization

3) http://www.scientificamerican.com/article....ulic-fracturing

[Ricinus]

Another part of the equation is LNG from the middle east. Apparently it is just burned off for the moment, but the plan is to ship to east coast US. Forecast for natural gas is to remain low for a long time.

 

Regards Mike

[Castuserraticus]

Another part of the equation is LNG from the middle east. Apparently it is just burned off for the moment, but the plan is to ship to east coast US. Forecast for natural gas is to remain low for a long time.

 

Regards Mike

 

Qatar is the largest exporter of liquified natural gas in the world. Saudi has been looking for natural gas within it's borders to fuel domestic demand. It's not all just burned.

[Castuserraticus]

The natural gas business is undergoing a fundamental change from regional to global markets. The recent technological developments in drilling and completions have created astounding possibilities for resource potential. At this time though, there are great uncertainties about the true production potential and costs of the new resource sources. The financial folks on the sell side would have investors believe risk no longer exists and money is piling in. Those of us on the technical side, especially ones with a few silver hairs, are optimistic but nervous. "The next great thing" touted by a financial promoter seldom meets expectations.

 

Hydraulic fracturing of tight rock to get oil/gas to flow is not a new technology as media extremists claim. It was first developed in the early 1900's and has been in commercial use since WW1. Leakage of fluids from frac'ing only happens when cement or equipment in the well fails.

 

Use of natural gas for transportation fuel would be better for the environment. The cost to change the existing and build new infrastructure though is immense.

 

 

[Ricinus]

Qatar is the largest exporter of liquified natural gas in the world. Saudi has been looking for natural gas within it's borders to fuel domestic demand. It's not all just burned.

 

 

Actually, I believe it's Iraq that burns off something like a Billion cubic feet per day because they lack the infra-structure to collect it. The info came from a WSJ article in spring.

 

Regards Mike

[DonAndersen]

OK then!!!

 

Prudhoe Bay is near "blowdown" and Esso is proposing a north pipeline with a gas bubble in N. America. Doesn't make a lot of sense unless the gas is never going to get past the Oil Sands.

 

And just to give some geologist a daily boost. Ever notice how deep sour gas just stops @ the 49th. It's all north of the 49th to well into the Yukon and when it goes south, the gas just stops @ the 49th. And with that, I'm off to see a a tooth fairy who I'm sure left me a quarter under my pillow.

 

 

Don

 

 

 

[Guest Sundancefisher]

OK then!!!

 

Prudhoe Bay is near "blowdown" and Esso is proposing a north pipeline with a gas bubble in N. America. Doesn't make a lot of sense unless the gas is never going to get past the Oil Sands.

 

And just to give some geologist a daily boost. Ever notice how deep sour gas just stops @ the 49th. It's all north of the 49th to well into the Yukon and when it goes south, the gas just stops @ the 49th. And with that, I'm off to see a a tooth fairy who I'm sure left me a quarter under my pillow.

 

 

Don

 

What do you consider deep?

 

12000 feet in Texas they have sour gas... 3657 m or 2.27 miles down... Pretty deep to me.

 

http://www.geopetro.com/projects/madisonville.htm

 

 

As for gas... There is tons of gas tied up in tight rock that is being cracked by technology. Just like existing reservoirs have produced 5-50% of their reserves...additional technology unlocks it. The main catelyst to this is $$$. It costs considerably more to use newer technology than just drilling and tying a well in. And sometimes costs go through the roof and what you thought you would find is not there.

 

Risk versus reward drives the technology and drilling budgets. Just like supply versus demand sets the globals prices. Natural gas prices will be low for a long, long time. If you locked in at $12 a gigajoule...ops.