Peak Oil?

[fisher26]

Also, I find the notion that lake communities will increase in value because of peak oil slightly humorous.

 

In my experience lake communities are built on cheap suburban land (how else could a developer create such a huge community - trying to buy up land and develop a lake in Elbow park, or Mount Royal would be unfeasible). As a result the communities are relatively isolated from people's work, shops and schools and most (if not all) of the residence rely on their vehicles for everyday needs. Unless these "lake communities" magically become self sustaining (with offices, schools and large stores) nobody will want to live their if the price of gas is $5.00 a liter - its just not affordable.

 

The notion that people will want to live in these communities for recreation might have some merit, but if peak oil does occur I think the economic situation will cause a refocusing of priorities. Furthermore real estate's value is a function of market demand - truthfully the demand for lake communities in a post-peak oil world would be quite low. In fact as of now the glut of Calgary's population does not think of hanging around suburban pothole lakes as recreation. Needless to say, we're a bit biased on this board ; ) but if you step back and take of the coloured lenses...

[Guest Sundancefisher]

Indeed, there's no alternatives to oil and gas....I mean look at the foot-print wind and sun power would make if people were to start putting these things up on their homes! The impact would be equivilant to a massive oil spill in the Gulf! And just think if one of those wind turbines busted! Think of all the wind that would leak everywhere, and all the hydrocarbon's they'd produce; we'd be heading to another ice-age in no time!!

 

I actually looked into putting two wind generators on our home in Calgary through a company called Windterra. The quote I got was 16k for two generators capable of producing 4000 watts /hr. with only a light wind. At 16k it's really nothing, less that most people's second, third or fourth car. You can even have them hooked up to the grid (for no additional cost), and legally in Canada; electric companies have to buy any excess power you produce. The generators are only 6 feet tall and designed to work at low wind speeds (they are stationary and require no adjusting for wind direction). They're also almost silent.

 

 

Too bad it's illegal to have a wind generator in Calgary. That said, I'm thinking of breaking the law kind of like CLUCK.

 

You just gotta wonder why they're illegal?

 

So we are in agreement then. A couple hundred ducks die at Syncrude...a bad thing everyone will agree and probably preventable. Now wind farms currently kill about 40,000 birds a year...and increasing...we are okay with that. Bats dieing left right and center...who need em.

 

Solar farms take up tons of land. Habitat is totally altered for animals still living there. Wind farms while a more open plan are deadly to bats and birds...but acceptable loses. But...I cringe at how quickly environmentalists pick and choose which open to kill is better than the other.

 

Those that feel current alternatives are 100% are blind to anything but ideological bias IMHO. I see the good and the bad in both. I believe in mitigation and innovation to make improvements.

 

In a perfect world...you and I really agree on one thing. It would be awesome if we could have solar panels on every roof feeding the grid and supplying power. You and I differ maybe insofar as I see the need to make it cost effective rather than burning money needlessly.

 

Still...I for one can tell you why we don't want wind turbines on every house in Calgary. Firstly...it looks bad. Yes...people want to have a nice place to live...so what can you say. Secondly...when generating power into the grid...you need stable supply. That many turbines would be horrible to manage. Plus the variability in wind speed, wind flow, setbacks, trees etc. would make it difficult to position and plan. Not to mention what a mine field that would be for migrating song birds. How high would they have to sit above ground in Calgary?

 

Cheers

 

Sun

[Guest Sundancefisher]

Also, I find the notion that lake communities will increase in value because of peak oil slightly humorous.

 

In my experience lake communities are built on cheap suburban land (how else could a developer create such a huge community - trying to buy up land and develop a lake in Elbow park, or Mount Royal would be unfeasible). As a result the communities are relatively isolated from people's work, shops and schools and most (if not all) of the residence rely on their vehicles for everyday needs. Unless these "lake communities" magically become self sustaining (with offices, schools and large stores) nobody will want to live their if the price of gas is $5.00 a liter - its just not affordable.

 

The notion that people will want to live in these communities for recreation might have some merit, but if peak oil does occur I think the economic situation will cause a refocusing of priorities. Furthermore real estate's value is a function of market demand - truthfully the demand for lake communities in a post-peak oil world would be quite low. In fact as of now the glut of Calgary's population does not think of hanging around suburban pothole lakes as recreation. Needless to say, we're a bit biased on this board ; ) but if you step back and take of the coloured lenses...

 

We have these silver limos we call a c-train. I never drive down town. Apparently tens of thousands a day use this unique form they call mass transit to commute to work. If the market economy craters to the worst degree. I agree. Any place you live is pointless and being unemployed you are probably moving anyways. Still...don't you think there is a reason why some places cost more to live than others? Why Lakeview is more expensive that Falconridge? Location is what drives price. Why is Canmore more expensive then Brooks? etc. Interestingly if you visit Houston they actually have many down towns scattered around. Maybe someday we will have a downtown in Okotoks or High River. For now however...commuting is done via Calgary Transit. I suspect if oil every went super high that transit systems would improve exponentially as well to handle all the traffic.

 

We are totally speculating...but dammit Jim...I would rather be fishing but the dilithium crystals broke and the temperature is dropping in the core. Snow is soon to fall. I love science fiction. Back to warp speed.

[fisher26]

We have these silver limos we call a c-train. I never drive down town. Apparently tens of thousands a day use this unique form they call mass transit to commute to work. If the market economy craters to the worst degree. I agree. Any place you live is pointless and being unemployed you are probably moving anyways. Still...don't you think there is a reason why some places cost more to live than others? Why Lakeview is more expensive that Falconridge? Location is what drives price. Why is Canmore more expensive then Brooks? etc. Interestingly if you visit Houston they actually have many down towns scattered around. Maybe someday we will have a downtown in Okotoks or High River. For now however...commuting is done via Calgary Transit. I suspect if oil every went super high that transit systems would improve exponentially as well to handle all the traffic.

 

 

I applaud the fact you utilize the c-train, however your fellow suburbanites much prefer vehicular transport. Will they switch to the train if gas prices increase? Maybe. But truthfully lake communities are kind of garbage real estate. Rows upon rows of cookie-cutter outdated suburban homes, sharing a small lake that was dug by a bulldozer in the middle of the prairies - I see no real value in this real estate. Location, location, location - and aside from the pothole lake all I see is sprawling, outdated, cheap suburban homes built in inaccessible suburbs. many residence even drive to the lake because their homes are far away from it, and thats in the community itself.

 

Maybe that's a bit harsh - but concision is a virtue.

 

Also ,I disapprove of your use of exponentially, the actual meaning of the word is different then your intended use. Maybe an alternative would be "significantly", or "substantially". To say, "the man began to drink exponential amounts as the night wore on" - means that the number of drinks he consumer X^(n), where 'n' represents the growth factor.

[Guest Sundancefisher]

I applaud the fact you utilize the c-train, however your fellow suburbanites much prefer vehicular transport. Will they switch to the train if gas prices increase? Maybe. But truthfully lake communities are kind of garbage real estate. Rows upon rows of cookie-cutter outdated suburban homes, sharing a small lake that was dug by a bulldozer in the middle of the prairies - I see no real value in this real estate. Location, location, location - and aside from the pothole lake all I see is sprawling, outdated, cheap suburban homes built in inaccessible suburbs. many residence even drive to the lake because their homes are far away from it, and thats in the community itself.

 

Maybe that's a bit harsh - but concision is a virtue.

 

Also ,I disapprove of your use of exponentially, the actual meaning of the word is different then your intended use. Maybe an alternative would be "significantly", or "substantially". To say, "the man began to drink exponential amounts as the night wore on" - means that the number of drinks he consumer X^(n), where 'n' represents the growth factor.

 

Ahhh... The old urban sprawl debate. People want what people want. If lake communities were not valued higher than non lake communities they would not fetch a premium lot price. So your argument is lost to that regard. I think the 3 and 4 story buildings like in San Francisco are cool but we don't have any that wants them. People mostly prefer a lawn...with grass and flowers...and that is what the market supplies. I trust you live in a downtown condo or an apartment? I can't imagine raising kids in an apartment condo like some do in downtown New York and Vancouver. I am more of a urban sprawl type person myself. When seeing value in residential property...what criteria do you use?

 

As for switching to transit in high prices...holy cow...you should of seen the huge increases in ridership... Unbelievable SIGNIFICANT increases. People could not get on. People were staggering work times to ride the train. So the fact is...yes they would switch...in a heart beat. I think any thing over $1 a litre had them scared... Over $1.20 litre...was SUBSTANTIAL and had them switching. Over $1.40 litre had them running for the train. I would suggest you visit some lake communities. Hardly cookie cutter. I find most new neighbourhood are too stark for my liking. To plain Jane...not enough character. The older lake communities have more variable housing but that goes the same regardless. Architectural designs change faster than cloths it seems. As for variability, Sundance for instance has senior housing apartments, senior duplexes, subsidized housing, duplexes, starter homes all the way to $2.5 million dollar house. I guess many people prefer living in a community with a lake, beach, swimming, fishing, boating, skating, tobogganing, etc. versus say ErinWoods. Lot prices prove that. A home is what you make of it but to each their own. As for driving to the lake...some ride bikes, some walk and pull wagons...some drive the 1 minute...who cares? maybe they have lots of kids toys to haul to the beach.

 

I sincerely appreciate your concern with my choice of words. I still like exponentially. I see we have one bus...going to 2 buses...going to 4 buses...going to 8 buses. We will definitely need an exponentially increase in service if we see a sudden rush. A significant increase would not mean much unless you are talking 1000% increase...which significant or substantially just does not do justice. Please think of another set of words and I will see if anything looks better... In the meanwhile..the snow seems to be falling in an exponentially increasing amount as I stare out the window. Also please note that I never said an indefinite exponential increase. You should be aware of the limitations of the chosen words imposed in the prose. Or just people are not anticipating a grammer fanatic

[gustuphson]

To get this thread back on track I suggest reading 1,000 barrels a second as well...

I think what I took from it the most was that with out "shocks" to the system things won't change.

 

[onthefly7]

I think what I took from it the most was that with out "shocks" to the system things won't change.

 

When do you think major noticeable "shocks" will start to happen?

[jksnijders]

I have a feeling that as the cost to travel increases...so will living in areas that provide bountiful recreational benefits and their cooresponding improved quality of life...if that recreational aspect is important to your family. Paying $100 - $200 in gas to go fishing for the weekend for instance will be out of range for many.

 

 

 

A quick look at real estate in the "Sundance" neck of the woods showed a pile of listings over 500 k... Thats a pretty heavy debt load for for anyone that falls within the apparently median family income for Calgary of about 90 k, especially with the rising interest rates these days. Maybe I'm crazy but I doubt alot of people (at least those with any instinct of financial self-preservation, which these days are a dying breed it seems to me.) would see the benefit of carrying that mortgage for the privilege of living next to a man-made lake. With the associated energy costs driving the exodus to these "lake" communities, as well as the obvious economic upheaval we've seen from energy price spikes in the past, such as now, with unemployment obviously feeling the effects, real estate like that is in for a bit of a correction I'd guess. Personally I'd prefer to pay the gas bill at my discretion rather than be chained to the mortgage...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[jksnijders]

I have a feeling that as the cost to travel increases...so will living in areas that provide bountiful recreational benefits and their cooresponding improved quality of life...if that recreational aspect is important to your family. Paying $100 - $200 in gas to go fishing for the weekend for instance will be out of range for many.

 

 

 

A quick look at real estate in the "Sundance" neck of the woods showed a pile of listings over 500 k... Thats a pretty heavy debt load for for anyone that falls within the apparently median family income for Calgary of about 90 k, especially with the rising interest rates these days. Maybe I'm crazy but I doubt alot of people (at least those with any instinct of financial self-preservation, which these days are a dying breed it seems to me.) would see the benefit of carrying that mortgage for the privilege of living next to a man-made lake. With the associated energy costs driving the exodus to these "lake" communities, as well as the obvious economic upheaval we've seen from energy price spikes in the past, such as now, with unemployment obviously feeling the effects, real estate like that is in for a bit of a correction I'd guess. Personally I'd prefer to pay the gas bill at my discretion rather than be chained to the mortgage...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[jksnijders]

 

Whoops...

[jksnijders]

When do you think major noticeable "shocks" will start to happen?

 

 

Just look at around July last year, oil was worth almost $ 140 a barrel. Things like that have a huge effect on the economy.

[Guest Sundancefisher]

A quick look at real estate in the "Sundance" neck of the woods showed a pile of listings over 500 k... Thats a pretty heavy debt load for for anyone that falls within the apparently median family income for Calgary of about 90 k, especially with the rising interest rates these days. Maybe I'm crazy but I doubt alot of people (at least those with any instinct of financial self-preservation, which these days are a dying breed it seems to me.) would see the benefit of carrying that mortgage for the privilege of living next to a man-made lake. With the associated energy costs driving the exodus to these "lake" communities, as well as the obvious economic upheaval we've seen from energy price spikes in the past, such as now, with unemployment obviously feeling the effects, real estate like that is in for a bit of a correction I'd guess. Personally I'd prefer to pay the gas bill at my discretion rather than be chained to the mortgage...

 

Quoting the higher prices does not give a fair response to the comment. In fact you failed to mention that there are 4 homes under $300,000 or 11 under $350,000 or 20 under $400,000 or 35 under $450,000 or 50 under $500,000. Only 11 properties over $500,000 from what I can see.

 

Being as the current average price in Calgary is $459,761 (single family home)...if I was in the market...liked boating, swimming, fishing, skating...why would you not consider a lake community. In fact just looking at the ton of listings tells me someone will sell at a deal. I don't see Sundance for instance currently being all that more expensive than your average home. You may get slightly less house than say in Shawnessy but you get the lake in return.

 

When talking debt load...buying a house in Calgary now a days guarantees that. Now if someone was considering a vacation property...buying a cabin...an acre in the country out by Rocky etc...why pay $200,000 to $600,000 for a house near a lake when for less you can have the same thing in the city. Granted we are not the country but the thread is referring to high oil...and when that happens you still want some of the same things but it will cost you dearly to drive there. So there in lies the "option" of having a city cottage and a city home rolled into one.

[Castuserraticus]

.......They're also almost silent......

 

You just gotta wonder why they're illegal?

 

Noise from the props is one of the biggest problems to proliferation. A quiet prop is the holy grail of wind.

 

[Guest Sundancefisher]

Noise from the props is one of the biggest problems to proliferation. A quiet prop is the holy grail of wind.

http://www.businessweek.com/investing/gree...036-600wide.jpg

 

this is a cool one. Funny the company is marketing as green...but studies have shown that industrial foot print and noise disturbs caribou and such...therefore...while an artistic representation...I doubt caribou would like this.

 

I noted there are lots of impressive and cool looking wind turbines...but funny...all companies seem to revert back to one style. There has to be a mechanical, operational or efficiency issue outside this tried and tested norm. As such any changes would result in poorer economics.

 

Why can't scientists invent a photosynthetic power cell. We could cover walls and roofs with it.

[Ricinus]

Why can't scientists invent a photosynthetic power cell. We could cover walls and roofs with it.

 

Maybe if we invested some money into alternative energy instead of just b!tching it's too expensive, these things would come about.

 

 

Regards Mike

[trailhead]

Maybe if we invested some money into alternative energy instead of just b!tching it's too expensive, these things would come about.

 

That's the problem, it ain't that easy. As they say, "Talk is cheap". And photosynthesis won't drive the family to Kelowna for the summer vacation. Oil drives cars, not gas, not solar, not wind. You can debate all those things but they in essence do not effect "peak oil" Motorized transport is root of the problem, and until someone can come up with a viable replacement, meaning one that can compete with oil and be PROFITABLE, we are where we are.

[Guest Sundancefisher]

Maybe if we invested some money into alternative energy instead of just b!tching it's too expensive, these things would come about.

 

 

Regards Mike

 

You can show us the way. If you will commit $10,000 to give away to a University research group with no strings attached...I will be impressed enough that you are putting your money where your ideology is. I assume you drive a hybrid and have drilled a geothermal heating well and also have your roof covered in solar panels?

 

Your point is true though...if it is not economical for the average person to afford...they won't do it. Let's hope for really high oil prices in the next few years.

 

[Ricinus]

You can show us the way. If you will commit $10,000 to give away to a University research group with no strings attached...I will be impressed enough that you are putting your money where your ideology is. I assume you drive a hybrid and have drilled a geothermal heating well and also have your roof covered in solar panels?

 

Your point is true though...if it is not economical for the average person to afford...they won't do it. Let's hope for really high oil prices in the next few years.

 

Why is it that in order to question our dependence on oil, I have to be " greener than green "? Cannot I just be an ordinary citizen who dislikes the stranglehold the fossil fuel industry has on our society? The same old personal attacks are used- don't you drive a hybrid, why don't you use solar panels etc etc etc. BORING!! I may just be somebody who would like to leave the next generation the opportunity to enjoy the same standard of living I had. We don't have any kids, so I guess I'm willing to make some sacrifices so your kids will have a chance.

 

Also, Hybrids really aren't that green, Geothermal is illegal in the city and My Utility company is not setup to buy back electricity.

 

Regards Mike

[Guest Sundancefisher]

Why is it that in order to question our dependence on oil, I have to be " greener than green "? Cannot I just be an ordinary citizen who dislikes the stranglehold the fossil fuel industry has on our society? The same old personal attacks are used- don't you drive a hybrid, why don't you use solar panels etc etc etc. BORING!! I may just be somebody who would like to leave the next generation the opportunity to enjoy the same standard of living I had. We don't have any kids, so I guess I'm willing to make some sacrifices so your kids will have a chance.

 

Also, Hybrids really aren't that green, Geothermal is illegal in the city and My Utility company is not setup to buy back electricity.

 

Regards Mike

 

Ya I know what you mean. The same old fight over and over again. I hate the oil companies. I hate big corporations. I love to drive though and wear synthetic materials and barbeque my steaks with natural gas. I wish everyone would stop being so reliant on oil and gas...except me. I need it. If everyone else gave up living in the 21st Century...then my air would be cooler.

 

But enough roll playing...is it warm enough to fish tonight?

[Ricinus]

You're right Walmart, Exxon and Goldman Sachs are our friends and wouldn't do anything thats not in our best interests. Think I'll go throw some Chinese Shrimp on the Barby.

 

Regards Mike

[CTownTBoyz]

You can show us the way. If you will commit $10,000 to give away to a University research group with no strings attached...

 

You shouldn't have any problem finding a University research group who is studying and developing alternative energy sources; there's a whole division at U of C Engineering devoted to solar power.

 

Are your philanthropic notions serious?

 

[jksnijders]

 

Quoting the higher prices does not give a fair response to the comment. In fact you failed to mention that there are 4 homes under $300,000 or 11 under $350,000 or 20 under $400,000 or 35 under $450,000 or 50 under $500,000. Only 11 properties over $500,000 from what I can see.

 

Being as the current average price in Calgary is $459,761 (single family home)

 

 

I apologize for my ignorance.. I wasn't aware the bubble was that large already.

[Guest Sundancefisher]

I apologize for my ignorance.. I wasn't aware the bubble was that large already.

 

No problem...at least people know that lake communities are currently quite affordable.

[jksnijders]

No problem...at least people know that lake communities are currently quite affordable.

 

 

Compared to....?

[slingshotz]

Compared to....?

 

Vancouver and Toronto!