Castuserraticus
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Posts posted by Castuserraticus
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Can anyone here cast like this? I'd love to learn some of these techniques. It seems to me he must be working with a light line to keep it airborne for so long.
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General comments - The idea that Alberta has generally not benefited from the present upswing is absurd. Just look at the jobs, jobs, jobs and all the tax revenue this has created.
Mike - there is already enough LNG (liquified natural gas) facilities in the US to completely displace Cdn gas. Four more terminals are under construction off the coast of Texas and will be starting up between late this year and mid 2009. These will more than double import capacity.
We have quite a bit in common. I graduated geology into the aftermath of the NEP. I worked as a store clerk during the crash of '86. Was able to get into a company the next year but made less than a first year city bus driver. My wife is a teacher. I've never had the security of a tenured position with a pension. I hope someday to get a big payoff because that's the path I've chosen. If it doesn't work I'll be looking to mow your lawn.
I also would like to see a longer term plan and while the government may be able to draw up a plan it's always ultimately up to industry investment to create prosperity. Ralph's cutbacks to education and health were short sighted. Of course we all know he had no respect for education. Maybe with all the new funds they can top up the teacher's pension plan, invest in schools, and drop the PTR.
About 25 years ago India made the decision to concentrate more on math and sciences in their schools. Look at what that plan created - one of the fastest growing economies in the world.
Toolman - I've read the report. One of the big problems is that it is very broad brush. Critical info is missing that would allow individual companies to calculate the potential effects. I don't know if my company is going to be hurt or helped. Where there's an information vaccuum fear thrives.
Alaska is not a fair comparison because their wells are so big and prolific. Charts within the report show how insignificant our wells are in comparison to the rest of the world. Low productivity=high costs just like your business I imagine. It's actually amazing we are able to compete when you compare areas. Alberta is saved by extremely high government takes in other regions. We have one of the highest cost structures in the world.
I do like the idea of a cheque in my pocket rather than going into government coffers.
You should really think hard about accusing the oil industry of deforestation when I understand you make cutting tools for the logging industry. When I google map northern Canada there's way more impact by forestry and it's coast to coast.
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So the report is out and the recommendation is to siphon another +$2B to the provincial bureaucrats. I predict if the report is adopted verbatim it will be revenue neutral as accelerating the existing slow down in industry, and resulting job losses, will cut severely into payroll and consumption taxes.
It's scary. It used to be if prices weakened then costs would adjust downwards. With the global demand for steel there is not likely the flexibility available to tool, equipment, and pipe suppliers to cut their input costs. Sales prices are set internationally and the only locally controlled costs now are human. Can you say "pay-cut"?
I thought it was particularly ludicrous for committee chairman Hunter to extol the nationalization movement of many perenially troubled third world countries like Venezuela. Is that the standard of living we want?
Why do Canadians feel so guilty during our relatively brief periods of prosperity that we have to self destruct?
Why do all dollars have to flow through government coffers when businesses generally create value and governments spend?
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The programs cut were quietly doing their job - too quietly. Some of their data may have flown in the face of the alarmists - like the study released last year that found polar bear populations at historic highs.
Governments need to justify the taxes collected. AGW is huge so they can tax big.
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That's one of my favourite hikes also. The wife and I did it a few years ago when there wasn't a cloud in sky. We also went counter clockwise and were disappointed to find Hidden Lake extremely high. The trail was under ~10' of water so we had to bushwhack over and under logs and ended up wading down the middle of the outlet stream. Was hoping to take my kids this year but it didn't happen. Maybe next....
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That's a real good one.
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Encana is going crazy strong on their CBM project out by Hussar/Strathmore ...I have'nt seen the slow either..but you hear the rumors and I know some of the big companies had a decent number of lay-offs late last winter..every job ive done this summer has be a new well completion..and everyone i talk to seems to be flat out...
I was involved in the early part of that program. Encana has different economics there because they own the mineral rights (6% tax vs 20% royalty). Stay with the project fi you have the choice. It may be monotonous but job security is good and you're close to Carseland for after work activity.
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Guys/Gals,
It's a tough world out there.
1 US Oil Barrel = $80.00 US
or $ 82.38 CDN
1 US bbl. = 159.96 liters
1 liter of car gas = $0.90 CDN
& 1 US bbl. of gas costs $ 159.06
Cost of production of oil from tar sand = $ 12.00 CDN/bbl.
So
$ 12>82.38 = 694% increase
&
$82.38>159.06 = 193% increase
and to really get your attention
Cost of Production = $12/bbl or $0.075/liter
and you buy it for $0.90/l
resulting in a increase from producer > you of only
$0.90/0.075 = 1200%
And just so castus... doesn't blow a gasket - some of the 1200% increase is taxes. None of the price increase is royalties.
Anybody catch Shell's CEO snivelling about the Royalty review?
And if I was just a tad more cynical, what if the oil companies, knowing right well a royalty review as going to take place, decided to cut their investments in drilling etc. thereby forcing lay-offs with the resulting public outcry about job loss which forced the Govt to again give them all a royalty holiday. They wouldn't do that - would they? Just remember, oil companies have been known of over-throw Govts when things didn't suit them.
regards,
Don
Why do I only get involved in the "lively" discussions?
In addition to a small calculation error (1 US Bbl costs $143.96Cdn) your numbers are simplistic and out of date. Between the producers and the pumps are the refiners, marketers, and governments. Tar sands are heavy oil and do not receive WTI prices. From Suncor's 2006 annual report:
Average light/heavy differential $8.83/Bbl - industry average is about $20 so Suncor does much better because they produce synthetic crude, 2007 is trending higher
Cash operating costs $26/Bbl - including production, transportation, and taxes.
So the estimated netback is down to ~ $47/Bbl and this is to deliver crude to the refinery. The actual calculation for Suncor in 2006 provides a netback of $41 likely because they also sell raw bitumen.
Your calculations also ignore the finding and development cost. Wells and mines are far from free. Industry average finding costs are over $20/Bbl.
Royalties paid on production increased to $911MM from $406MM (production increased from 165M to 263M BOPD, rates rise with prices)
To get product to consumers the oil has to be refined and distributed. The refiners process the crude into more valuable products (gas, diesel, lubricants, AVgas, bitumen). Historically, refinery margins have been below 4% but have crept up to 7% recently.
Gasoline refining and marketting costs averaged $23.80 /Bbl in 2005
And the governments take their share.
Gasoline taxes averaged $52.30/Bbl in 2005.
I have to sign off now because I'm late for the "Global Oil Conspiracy 101" course that's mandatory for all participants in the industry.
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Oil price in $US increase + Appreciating $Cdn = $0
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The attitude is nervous. Producing companies that were not as disciplined - marginal projects relying on increasing prices, loading up on debt - are in deep trouble. The healthy ones are closely evaluating their capital programs. Risk is back.
The service companies are usually late to the party and the first to get hit by cutbacks. The overbuild of equipment, launch of new companies, and large rate increases have set the stage for some tough times. The fortunate ones will be able to move equipment to the US where rig counts are rising.
What impacts gas prices?
Supply and demand - It's increasingly a world wide market. Canadian production peaked in 2001. There's going to be an explosion of production from the US Rockies region and, potentially, LNG (liquified natural gas) from international sources in the next few years. With gas-on-gas competition, price spikes will be much more subdued. Potentially countering this is competing demand from Europe and developing nations. Demand in North America has been flat for a couple of years. This could change with normal winter conditions, fuel switching due to cost savings, and industrial demand for the oil sands. Alberta internal consumption has grown by about 700MMcf/d over the past 10 years. European and developing country demand is still rising.
Exchange rates - The Canadian dollar is firmly trending higher. American markets set the price. Our gas seemed cheap when the $Cdn was worth $0.67US. The period of currency exchange adding to the selling price is ending. Many analysts put a fundamental price of $6US on gas prices due to present project costs.
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Carrying two packs, bushwhacking ("Do we climb over or crawl under this tree?"), wading, cliff scrambling - brings back fond memories of a couple of hikes years ago with my wife. The wading was a relief after the bushwhacking. Fortunately, it was only about 10 km.
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The owner will have to get the good duct tape to fix that.
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Parking outside any hotel/motel that advertises internet has worked for me. I've used both MS remote terminal and LogMeIn to access my office computer. I've trusted the security built into those programs. Also, with Firefox the browser can be set to clear personal info. Just shut-it down and your log-in ID is forgotten. I don't see how there's really any difference in using a VPN from your house or from your laptop. Either can be hacked into by someone who's knowledgeable and determined. What are the chances someone's targeting you?
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Birchy's new kid post, my 20th anniversary today - these things makes one count the blessings. Last night I scored on an end to end rush in hockey (playoff game and I'm defense). Maybe I am getting better.
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Congratulations. Before you know it he'll be grown. Enjoy every moment - even the sleepless ones. They all have meaning. Your picture brings up memories that still seem so fresh even though mine are 13 & 15 now.
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You captured some excellent colours. What camera do you use?
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My wife slipped in that first boulder field you have pictured and we were luck she only got a deep gouge. Unfortunately I didn't take a rod but we saw fish in even the smaller ponds. Good for your boys for making it. There's a pretty intense gradient the entire way. We didn't make the top due to the boulder field mishap.
We backpacked into Lillian Lake with the kids a couple of years ago. My son (non-fisherman) caught just about 30 cutts in the 3 days. We had a moose hanging around. We've found the absolute key is to keep the kids well hydrated - more important than the trail treats.
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Turks Tarantula
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No - My old Pathfinder was broken into twice in the past couple of years just for parking change.
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Can you recharge the dessicant quality by heating it? In other words, how cheap can I get?
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About 35 years of dabbling. The last 10 I've actually been somewhat serious.
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Harps - You obviously have more direct contact with violations that I ever will. You're comments remind me of one of my partners who's a lawyer. His experience working for and against corporate clients causes him to see people with a pretty jaded view. He's always telling me I'm too naive and trusting. However, I can't possibly possess all the knowledge in the universe so we hire the best people we can find, express our intent, and trust in their knowledge and actions.
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Frank and Joe were fanatics and fished together for 50 years. However as they got older their excursions became fewer and shorter. Still, every Wed. during the season they'd fish a favourite section of their home river. They'd leave a vehicle at a bridge and one of their wives would drive them to the next bridge a couple miles downstream. They timed their trips to get home in time for supper and some bridge with their wives. One day the guys didn't return by supper. The wives were nearly frantic with worry when Frank finally returned an hour after dark. He was absolutely beat and could hardly drag himself into the house.
"What happened?" the wives wanted to know.
"It was terrible." Frank said "Joe had a heart attack and died when we were rigging up."
"That's awful." his wife said.
"Yeah" said Frank, "It was a long day - fish a hole and drag Joe, fish a hole and drag Joe."
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You get an idea of the age of the poster from their medical history.
Broken bones - probably young and reckless.
Joint replacement - experienced in life
Good luck
A Little Medical Advice Please
in General Chat - Fishing Related
Posted
You should maybe take over my alias.